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The 10 Trillion Economy - feat. Dr. Shamika Ravi, Ridham Desai, Mukesh Aghi & Ashish Chauhan.
WMG Group
22,590 views 1 Dec 2024
What does the path to India's 10 Trillion Economy look like? And how can we reach there?
Listen to Dr. Shamika Ravi, Member, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, Govt of India, lead a conversation with Ridham Desai, Morgan Stanley India - Managing Director and heads Morgan Stanley
Indian Equity Research, Mukesh Aghi, President & CEO, US- India Strategic Partnership Forum and Ashish Chauhan, CEO & MD, National Stock Exchange.
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This panel was a part of the India Ideas Conclave, brought to you by India Foundation and the WMG Group.
"Our economy is poised to grow up to $5 trillion in the next 7-8 years, and up to $10 trillion in the next 15 years."
Suresh Prabhu, Minister of Commerce & Industry and Civil Aviation of India, at The fifth edition of The Economic Times Supply Chain Management & Logistics Summit 2017 Minister of Commerce & Industry and Civil Aviation of India.
Lets all work to make India 5 trillion dollar economy: PM Modi
Rajya Sabha TV
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RIL chairman Mukesh Ambani - India's GDP To Double To 5 Trillion Dollar In Next 7 Years
22 July 2018
In 30 years, when India will celebrate the centenary of Independence, it can grow from a USD 2.5-trillion economy to become the most prosperous nation in the world, the RIL chairman Mukesh Ambani said.
“As India starts on its high growth journey to double the size of its economy by 2025, I assure you that the size of Reliance will more than double in the same period. And the creation of societal value by Reliance will be of an even higher order,” Ambani said in his 2018 RIL AGM address.
India to be $10 trillion economy by 2034?
NDTV
25 Nov 2014 Dennis Nally, Chairman of PwC International, talks to NDTV about strategies needed to turn India into a $10 trillion economy in 20 years after the firm released a report outlining the potential of the Indian economy.
On 21 April 2016, Niti Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant said India would become a $10 trillion economy by 2032. Kant made the projection assuming that growth would average 10% over the 16-year period. The presentation was made during Civil Services Day function attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and large number of civil servants. Mr,. Kant also said, a average growth rate of ten per cent during the next 16 years.
ITC Limited 104th Annual General Meeting - Address by Chairman Y.C. Deveshwar
It is aspiration of ITC to achieve, at the very least, a revenue of Rs.1,00,000 crores from new FMCG Businesses by 2030. The present turnover is Rs. 11,000 crores.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's $20 Trillion GDP Vision for India
Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in is his speech: "Let us Dream 20 Trillion Dollars GDP for India." Yes, He can create the vision for a $20 Trillion GDP India.
Already many experts have come out with $10 Trillion India. Let us achieve this intermediate target first by 2030 and then aim for the next. No rest till we are declared the best.
Yes, India can aim for $10 Trillion - Support from Gary Hamel, Strategy Guru
Vineer Nayar, Former CEO, HCL Technologies supporting the target and bringing leading consultants from the Globe to convince Indian Businessmen to create appropriate visions for their organizations.
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ET Now upload
24 November 2014
PWC Report on India - Future of India - Winning Leap
Scenario 3: The Winning Leap includes investment in both human and physical capital as per the previous two scenarios but also focuses on investment in R&D and innovation and envisions a 9.0% CAGR for GDP by 2034. This scenario forecasts the most aggressive growth and is the only scenario which will generate the 240 million new jobs India's growing demography needs. This is supported by a massive transformation in the investment outlook and productivity metrics in India, supported through significant investments (domestic and foreign) and research and development. http://press.pwc.com/global/the-future-of-india/s/3de54e52-d24c-49b4-bd8d-7cc5705bd5e6
Development of R&D Important for $10 Trillion GDP
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2010
National Solar Mission
Objective: to make India a global leader in solar energy and envisages an installed solar generation
capacity of 20,000 MW by 2020, of 1,00,000 MW by 2030 and of 2,00,000 MW by 2050.
Was it already revised by Modi Government?
Updated 2018 - 21 July 2018
Updated 2017 - 28 November, 2016 - 22 Apr 2016
Updated 2015 - 15 August, 12 April, 23 Feb 2015
Roadmap towards achieving a 5 trillion dollar economy by 2025 - Government of India
Press Information Bureau
Government of India
Ministry of Commerce & Industry
11-October-2018
Vision of a USD 5 Trillion Indian Economy
The Working Group tasked to develop a roadmap towards achieving a 5 trillion dollar economy by 2025 has prepared its report and it is being circulated to the stakeholders for further suggestions.The Working Group was constituted by the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion in the Ministry of Commerce and Industry with participation from government and industry. The Group held extensive and broad-based consultations with stakeholders to better understand the aspirations and the potential.The sectoral sub-groups were also formed to take the task forward.
India is one of the fastest growing major economies and is currently ranked as the world’s sixth largest economy. Projections of growth, over the medium term, remain encouraging and optimistic for India. The underlying strengths are indicative of the potential of India to achieve a USD 5 trillion economy by 2025. The current structure of the economy and the emerging dynamics provide us grounds to target achieving 1 trillion dollar from agriculture and allied activities, 1 trillion from manufacturing and 3 trillion from services.
The Government has several ongoing initiatives across sectors focused on growth. In agriculture the Government is aiming to reorient policy focus from being production-centric to becoming income-centric. The emphasis on incomes provides a broader scope towards achieving the needed expansion of the sector. The proposed Industrial Policy 2018 provides an overarching, sector-agnostic agenda for the enterprises of the future and envisions creating a globally competitive Indian industry that is modern, sustainable and inclusive.
The Champion Services sector initiative is also under way to accelerate the expansion of select service sectors. The Working Group has accounted for these initiatives and encourages a fresh impetus to achieve the target of a five trillion economy. http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=184130
2 October 2018
(12 - 13 February 2018)
India's Trillion Dollar Digital Opportunity - Digital India - Report by McKinsey on India
All the panelists felt that $5 trillion GDP target by 2025 was achievable. They felt it is probably underwhelming. Thus the corporate sector is highly positive about the target.
The contribution of Digital to GDP by that time will be $1 trillion. Hence Digital is going to grow in a big way.
New initiatives for $5 T economy soon: Suresh Prabhu
India's Consumption will triple to $4 Trillion by 2025.
India to Become Third-Largest Consumer Market Economy by 2025
Consumption will triple to $4 Trillion by 2025. Middle income Householders Will Represent Biggest Share of Spending; Urbanization and More Nuclear and Digital Households Will Also Shape New Spending Patterns
According to a report released today by The Boston Consulting Group’s (BCG) Center for Customer Insight (CCI), The New Indian: The Many Facets of a Changing Consumern nominal year-over-year expenditure growth of 12% in India is more than double the anticipated global rate of 5% and will make India the third-largest consumer market by 2025.
The shape of this growth will be influenced by the following factors:
The high income segments will constitute 40% of all spending by 2025; for the first time, this group will represent the largest consumption segment
Emerging cities (those with populations of less than 1 million) will be the fastest growing and will constitute one-third of total consumer spending by 2025
Three-fourths of all households will be nuclear families
Digital channels will influence 30% to 35% of all retail sales by 2025 and 8% to 10% of retail spending will be online
Among the factors that will shape consumption is India’s unique pattern of urbanization, in which emerging cities are the fastest growing. About 40% of India’s population will be living in urban areas by 2025, and city dwellers will account for more than 60% of consumption. Expenditures in these cities are already rising by nearly 14% a year, while consumer spending in India’s biggest cities is increasing at about 12% a year. Consumers in these cities behave differently from big-city consumers. They have a strong value-for-money orientation, significant local-culture affinity, and a more conservative financial outlook.
The proportion of nuclear households, which has been on the rise during the past two decades, has reached 70% and is projected to increase to 74% by 2025. This ongoing shift is significant to marketers because nuclear families spend 20% to 30% more per capita than joint families.
BCG CCI’s most recent consumer survey in India included 10,000 consumers in 30 locations nationwide and studied consumption in more than 50 categories. The biggest desires of aspirer households used to be to own a house and a car; today, many more of these consumers want to take international vacations. Similarly, affluent households are becoming comfort seekers, and they are willing to pay for it.
In addition, the internet is an increasingly pervasive factor in India’s commerce, and its influence will only expand. Online spending is taking off: in the past three years, the number of online buyers has increased sevenfold to 80 million to 90 million. Digital’s influence on broader consumer spending is significant and growing rapidly. Digitally influenced spending is currently about $45 billion to $50 billion a year, and that figure is projected to increase more than tenfold to $500 billion to $550 billion—and to account for 30% to 35% of all retail sales—by 2025. As a result, omnichannel interaction is more and more important, but its significance varies by category.
Already, a rising number of consumers in all segments are using the internet as their first port of call in framing and driving their purchase decisions. Research found that about 70% of those who have access to the internet go online to make informed purchase decisions.
In a meeting of CEOs of Tata group companies on this day, the birthday of Bharat Ratna J.R.D. Tata (29 July). chairman of the group, Mistry called for touching $350 billion revenue by 2025. During the year 2015-16, Tata group invested $9 billion globally. Tata group turnover was $103 billion during 2015-16. $350 billion revenue would mean a GDP contribution of $175 billion. This sort of estimate would give an estimate of $3 trillion of large scale organizations. MSMEs and India Uninc. can contribute equal amount of $3 trillion. That leaves $1 trillion as contribution from agriculture.
Startups in Digital Technology Space in India by 2025 - One Lakh
India will have one lakh startups by 2025 contributing $500 billion of value and giving employment to 70 lakh people. Mohan Das Pai now angel investor (formerly CFO, Infosys).
Average size of the successful start up (a small scale organization) will be $5 million (around 30 to 35 crore rupees). It provides employment to 70 people.
India Will Be Fastest-Growing Economy for Coming Decade, Harvard Researchers Predict
India is 3rd Largest Economy in terms of GDP-PPP Valuation (2015)
Unit: Billion, US Dollar
China USA India
GDP-PPP Valuation 18,976 18,125 7,997
Source : International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook WEO, April 2015
Industry Visions for 2025
Automobiles - Vision 2025
2.15 Million vehicles produced in 2013-14.
7% of the country’s GDP.
6 Million-plus vehicles to be sold annually, by 2020.
The auto industry produced a total of 2.15 Million vehicles, including passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, three-wheelers and two-wheelers in 2013-14 as against 2.06 Million in 2012-13, registering a growth of 4.04% in a year.
The total turnover in 2010-11 was USD 58.5 Billion, turnover by 2016 is slated to be USD 145 Billion.
Automotive mission plan, 2006-16:
To emerge as the world’s destination of choice for design and manufacture of automobiles and auto components with output reaching a level of USD 145 Billion, accounting for more than 10% of the GDP and providing additional employment to 25 Million people by 2016.
The Tata SIA Airlines Ltd’s research gives the estimate that civil aviation in India has the potential to create an economic value of $250 billion and contribute to around 5 percent of the country’s GDP by 2025. It sees a three-fold rise in domestic air traffic by 2025. Contribution of Civil Aviation sector to India’s GDP in 2009 is estimated to be 1.5% as per the recent study carried out by Oxford Economics. The study has also estimated that the sector supports a total of 9.95 million jobs. • Passenger handling capacity has risen three-folds from 72 million (FY 06) to over 220 million (FY 11) • Cargo handling capacity has risen from 0.5 million MT (FY 06) to 3.3 million MT (FY 11) If every Indian in the middle-class income bracket takes just one flight per annum, it would result in a sale of 300 million tickets, a big jump from the 70 million domestic tickets sold in 2014-15. The first vision statement in the draft NCAP 2015 speaks of creating an ecosystem that will enable 30 crore (300 million) domestic tickets to be sold by 2022 and 50 (500 million) crore by 2027, from the current seven crore (70 million).
Modi Govt. Unveiled National Biotechnology Development Strategy 2015-2020 with the objective of achieving $100 billion by 2025. The present industry size is $7 billion.
150 technology transfer organizations will come up in India as a part indigenous technology development mission.
Chemicals
Chemical Industry Size Could be $400 billion by 2025
Proposal to establish an autonomous USD 100 Mn chemical innovation fund by securing 10% of the total inclusive national innovation fund set up by the National Innovation Council
The Indian Chemical Industry comprises both small and large-scale units, and presently, there are about 70,000 chemical manufacturing units located in the country (Deptt. Of Chemicals and
Petrochemicals-Draft National Chemical Policy-December 2013) a major component (in numbers) are covered in the small scale sector.
Indian chemical industry is expected to register a growth of 8-9% in the next decade.
India’s chemical industry is likely to touch $214 billion (approx ₹13,91,000 crore) in the next four years from $139 (approx ₹9,03,500 crore) in fiscal 2014 with estimated growth of around 9 per cent a year. There is robust growth of consuming sectors till fiscal 2025. Hence there is very strong outlook for the key end-user industries. The demand for intermediate chemical products and basic chemical is expected to surge in the coming years.
The installed capacity is 6 million tons per annum (MTPA). India would fall short by 25–30 MT by 2025, which would mean an additional import cost of INR 150,000 to 200,000 crore (USD 24 to 32 billion) a year for intermediates.
A level of 85 per cent self-sufficiency in petrochemical intermediates is a necessary and achievable aspiration for the country to have a vibrant downstream chemical industry. This would require India to install 20–25 MTPA of additional petrochemical intermediate capacity – a number four times the volume of the entire current installed capacity. It means 70–90 additional plants (at economically viable scale) across 30–40 products have to be planned and implemented.
Basic inputs to make Petrochemical Intermediates
Petrochemical building blocks
▪ Methanol
▪ Ethylene
▪ Propylene
▪ C4, C5
▪ Benzene, toluene, xylene
Although the Petrochemical Industry has consistently outperformed the GDP Growth rates of India – growing at around 1.5 times the GDP growth rate, recent developments consequent to advantaged feedstock availability in the US and Middle East have led to a situation where announced investments by Indian Companies on production of Petrochemical Building Blocks have fallen short of future requirements.
The chemical industry’s R&D spends would need to go up significantly from current levels of less than 0.5% of sales to reach closer to global benchmarks of 4% of sales (implying R&D spends of ~$12 billion by 2017.
The chemical industry is central to the modern world economy having a typical sales-to-GDP ratio of 5-6%.
With the current size of $108 billion the Indian chemical industry accounts for approximately 7% of Indian GDP. The chemicals sector accounts for about 14% in overall index of industrial production (IlP). Share of industry in national exports is around 11% (2011?)
Source Documents
Download them and read them in detail to understand the growth of the sector
Construction industry plays a pivotal role in developing country’s infrastructure and accounts for nearly 45% of the total investment in the Infrastructure. Construction sector is also the second
largest employer after the agriculture sector.
Construction industry can be broadly classified into two sectors i.e. organized and unorganized. The organized sector includes more than 30,000 organisations whereas the standalone contractors in the unorganized sector number more than 120,000.
Construction equipment accounts for 21-23 % of the total project cost
As per estimates by Off-Highway research, the sale of construction equipment is expected to reach 84,000 units by 2014, of which infrastructure and real estate sectors will account for 70%. This translates into a CAGR of about 20% over the next five years (2009-2014) in sales of construction
equipment.
About 250 ancillary industries such as cement, steel, brick, timber and building material are dependent on the construction industry. A unit increase in expenditure in this sector has a multiplier effect and the capacity to generate income at much higher growth rates.
Real Estate
11.5 million homes a year - US$ 1 trillion a year market
The country is expected to become the world's third largest construction market by 2025, adding 11.5 million homes a year to become a US$ 1 trillion a year market, according to a study by Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics. http://www.ibef.org/archives/detail/b3ZlcnZpZXcmMzY0OTgmNTI1
Roads
The road network stands at 3.3 million km in (2006?). Of this, rural roads comprise around 2.7 million km, i.e. about 85 percent. Overall village accessibility stood at 54 percent in the year 2000, although position in respect of accessibility to large size habitations has been much better.
However, in order to give a boost to rural connectivity, a Rural Roads Programme known as the
Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) was launched in December 2000. As a departure from
the earlier programmes, the PMGSY is being implemented as a 100 percent centrally funded scheme. As per the current guidelines, the PMGSY covers all habitations above 500 population to be provided with all-weather rural roads. In case of hills, deserts and tribal areas, the threshold is relaxed and covers all habitations above 250 population. It is estimated that about 1.79 lakh unconnected habitations need to be taken up under the PMGSY programme. This would involve new construction in a length of about 375,000 km at an estimated cost of Rs. 78,000 crore and improvements of 372,000 km at an estimated cost of Rs. 59,000 crore. Upto the end of December, 2006, a total of about 83,000 habitations have been covered and rural road works for an amount of Rs.38,387 crore have been sanctioned.
When the PMGSY was launched in 2000, it was estimated that about 347,000 habitations
out of a total of 825,000 habitations were without any all-weather access. Thus, 40 per cent of the
habitations were cut off from the country’s mainstream of development. According to latest figures
made available by the state governments under a detailed survey undertaken to identify core networks
about 1.79 lakh unconnected habitations need to be taken up under the PMGSY programme.
PMGSY Programme: New Connectivity
Habitation Number of Rural Length Required Total Estimated cost
Population Group Unconnected Habitations (km) (Rs billion)
1000+ 60,030 138,888
500-999 79,208 160,754 784.18
250-499 * 39,530 75,690
Total 178,768 375,332 784.18
* Only in hill states, desert and tribal areas as per PMGSY eligibility.
In addition, upgradation of roads of the core network will be undertaken where required to provide
connectivity to market centres and other social infrastructure. A length of 372,816 km for upgrading at an estimated cost of Rs.590.330 billion has been included out of a total length of 1,134,112 km,
Cement demand is projected to grow to 2.5 to 2.7 times the current volumes and reach 550 to 600 MTPA by 2025. Per capita cement consumption is likely to increase from 185 kg currently to 385 to 415 kg in 2025. This growth will likely be led by investments in the infrastructure sector, with subsectors such as roads, power, and irrigation leading the charge.
Present production 137.6 million tonnes.
The demand of milk and milk products in India is projected to increase to 142.9 million tonnes in 2015 and further to 191.3 million tonnes in 2020. The demand will further rise to 231.18 million tonnes in 2035.
The demand projections show that there is scope to increase diary farms at the various scale levels. Large scale diary farms having 200 milk giving animals may be encouraged to increase productivity and quality of milk. Also, setting up advanced diary plants and implementing modern IT systems like internet of things in the entire supply chain including the cattle will take place. Already, some diary plants have used RFID tags attached to animals to monitor their behaviour and inform the animal owners about various steps to be taken. http://guide-india.blogspot.in/2015/03/dairy-industry-and-activity-vision-2025.html
Electrical Machinery - Vision 2025
Output of US$ 100 billion by 2022
As of 2011-12, the Indian EE industry has grown close to Rs. 1.20 lakh crore (US$ 25 billion). It
contributes 1.4% to the nation’s GDP and 10.0% to the manufacturing GDP.
Based on investment estimates and capacity addition targets, domestic demand for generation equipment (BTG) could be in the range of US$ 25-30 billion by 2022; for the T&D equipment industry, it may be US$ 70–75 billion. The EE industry is projected to provide direct employment to 1.5 million people and indirect employment to 2 million by 2022. http://dhi.nic.in/writereaddata/Content/indian_mission_plan_2012-2022.pdf
Electronics Design and Manufacturing - Vision 2025
The Indian food processing industry is valued at approx. ` 78,094 crore for the year 2011-
12.
The industry has shown Compounded
Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.4% during the period 2006-07 to 2011-12.
Information Technology and Business Process Services - Vision 2025
CII sets 2025 vision for building a customer centric and value creating USD 250 bn insurance industry in India
Life insurance industry to grow at 12% CAGR over next decade to reach USD 160 bn – USD 175 bn and general insurance to grow at 22% CAGR to reach a GWP of USD 80 bn.
From a ` 12,000 crore top-line industry in 2001–02, today it is worth ` 70,000 crore (FY 2013), clocking an annual growth rate of 17%. The industry today provides a cover of ` 1,000
lakh crore,
2025 - GWP to GDP penetration of 1.4%
Gross Written Premium
— Growth CAGR of ~14–15% resulting in GWP of ~Rs. 3,50,000 crore by 2025. (5 times of 2013 GWP)
— With no improvement in combined ratio, the industry would continue to have a negative value creation of ` 20–25,000 crore while delivering average RoE of 10–12%.
— Capital requirements remain relatively high – RS.` 20–25,000 crore of fresh infusion.
Leather Industry - Vision 2025
Total production of Indian leather industry stands at USD 11 Billion
Exports have grown from USD 1.42 Billion in 1990-91 to USD 6 Billion in 2013-14
India produces 2 Billion sq. feet of leather, accounting for 10% of the world leather requirements
Domestic market expected to double in next five years
Exports projected to grow at 24% per annum over next five years
The global footwear market is estimated to be worth $192.3 bnin 2008, a growth of 2% over
the 2007 value. The Indian footwear industry is estimated to be worth just INR 160 bn or $4 bn[2].
It is the second largest global producer of footwear after China, accounting for more than 14 % of
global footwear production of 14.52 bn pairs.
The Indian footwear market is expected to worth INR 475 bn by 2025, representing a compounded
annual growth rate of 7%.
The contribution of mining to India’s GDP has fallen from 1.2 per cent to 1 per cent in the recent years.
The mining industry has the potential to create 6 million additional total jobs by 2025, accounting for 12 per cent of the new non-farm job gap. The mining industry could contribute USD 125 billion to India’s output and additional USD 47 billion to India’s GDP by 2025.
In 2012, the mining sector accounted for 3 million jobs directly, and induced an additional 8 million
jobs.
If mining grows more rapidly, it could increase its direct and induced contribution to India’s output
from USD 50 billion in 2012 to USD 126 billion by 2025 (additional USD 47 billion over business-as usual scenario). Additional contribution to GDP will be USD 47 billion )
India’s mining sector has been growing slower than other major mining jurisdictions such as China, Brazil, Canada, the United States, Chile and Australia. The real value add of India’s mining sector to the GDP is very low at USD 14.4 billion against that of China (USD 150 billion), Australia (USD 38 billion) and Brazil (USD 21 billion). Between 2010 and 2012, India’s mining sector grew at 0.8 per cent compared to 15 per cent for China, 5.3 per cent for the United States, 2.5 per cent for Canada and 2 per cent for Brazil. So there is substantial scope for increasing mining output in India. India has
endowment of the top 5 or 6 reserves globally across commodities such as thermal coal and iron
ore. So availability of ore is there. Investment and technology to mine the ore and process it have to be arranged.
The Indian pharmaceuticals market increased at a CAGR of 17.46 per cent in 2015 from US$ 6 billion in 2005 and is expected to expand at a CAGR of 15.92 per cent to US$ 55 billion by 2020.
Long coastline of 7,517 km and navigable inland waterways of 14,500 km offering immense potential
for maritime sector development.
150 + projects for investment identified in Indian maritime sector
Opportunities for investment of USD 19 Billion in Inland Waterway development and USD 50 Billion in Port-led Development under ‘Sagarmala’
‘Sagarmala’ - New Port Development and Port Modernization
Greenfield major ports at Vadhavan (Maharashtra), Sagar Island (West Bengal), Paradip Outer Harbour and Potential locations in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu
Trans-shipment Hubs at Enayam (Tamil Nadu) and Vizhinjam (Kerala)
Port Mordernization:
Increasing draft at Kamarajar (Ennore), Paradip and Mormugao Ports to 18m
500 MMTPA port capacity augmentation in Major Ports by 2025
‘Jal Marg Vikas’ project for capacity augmentation for navigation and shipping in River Ganga: NW-1 (1620 km)
Development of 111 National Waterways
Development of cruise terminals at Mormugao, Chennai, Mumbai, Chennai and Kochi.
Shipping
Market size of shipbuilding expected in 2025 – US$ 25 billion
Market size of shipbuilding at present – US$ 5 billion
India will develop road projects spanning 50,000 kilometers and entailing investments of about $250 billion over the next five years (FY 2016-17 to FY2020-2021).
The 12th five year plan 2012-17 estimated the road sector’s investment to be $95 billion.
Potential adoption of 12 empowering technologies in India
Mobile internet, cloud technology, Automation of knowledge work (through mobile phones), Digital payments, Digital identity, internet of things, Intelligent transportation and distribution, Advanced geographic information systems, Next generation genomics, Advanced oil and gas exploration and recovery, Renewable energy, Advanced energy storage
To assess the potential impact of the 12 technologies on the economy of India, McKinsey sized more than 40 applications in six sectors of the economy: financial services, education and skills, healthcare, agriculture and food, energy, and infrastructure.
The total impact of the sized applications could amount to $240 billion to $500 billion a year by 2025. Given the contributions of these sectors to India's GDP, the estimate across the entire economy, is estimated to be $550 billion to $1 trillion by 2025.
Financial services. The applications could have an economic value of $32 billion to $140 billion a year by 2025. As many as 300 million Indians could gain access to banking services and raise their incomes by 5 to 30 percent thanks to better access to credit and the ability to save and make remittances.
Education and skills. The remote learning, massive open online courses (MOOCs), and other digital systems could have an economic impact of $60 billion to $90 billion a year by 2025 thanks to higher productivity among a larger number of skilled workers. India could have about 24 million more high-school and college-educated workers and 18 million to 33 million more vocationally trained workers by 2025 as a result of digitization in the education sector.
Health Care: By 2025, the total economic impact could be $25 billion to $65 billion a year, including $15 billion that could be saved through systems to reduce the problem of counterfeit drugs. Some 400 million of India's poor could get access to better care through technologies that bring medical expertise to modestly skilled health workers in remote areas.
Agriculture and food. Technology applications could create $45 billion to $80 billion a year in additional value in the sector. More than half of that would come from hybrid and genetically modified crops, precision farming (using sensors and GIS-based soil, weather, and water data to guide farming decisions), and mobile Internet–based farm-extension and market-information services. These improvements could raise the incomes of as many as 100 million farmers
Energy. Collectively, the technology applications in energy could have an economic value of $50 billion to $95 billion a year by 2025. The largest benefit would come from smart metering, which could save $15 billion to $20 billion a year by 2025 in reduced transmission losses. Unconventional-oil and -gas development might generate value of $10 billion a year by 2025.
Together, infrastructure technologies can contribute $30 billion to $45 billion a year in value by 2025.
Due to the fourfold growth of bilateral trade since 2006 to 100 billion USD in 2014, both the governments are now keen and committed to further improving trade relations. The time is ripe for a new ambition to be set in its trade relations and improve the trade to $500 billion.
1.6 trillion USD worth of investment will be required by 2025 and 3.6 trillion USD by 2034 for India to transform into a 10 trillion USD economy. An important share of this investment will need
to come from international sources investing in new technologies and setting up global research and development (R&D) centres in India. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to India rose by
26% in 2014 to an estimated 35 billion USD. http://www.pwc.in/assets/pdfs/publications/2015/indo-us-trade-mission-500-billion-usd-iacc-report.pdf
Updated 2024 - 19.10
2018 - 12 November, 16 May 2018, 1 May 2018, 28 January
23 March 2017, 12 March 2017, 31 July 2016, 30 May 2016, 16 May 2916, 12 March 2016, 8 March 2016, 1 Jan 2016
Please inform if you have come across any interesting information regarding any sector through comments
Allow building new plants with Industry 4.0 Technology in backward industrial locations up to a cumulative capacity of 10%
Remove the Idea of Job Losses
Regulation of Industry 4.0
Allow Industry 4.0 Technology in New Units in Backward Locations - Increase Employment and Infrastructure
Now Industry 4.0 technology is being implemented world over. There are worries about employment issues due to introduction of new technology. Government has to regulate its introduction and diffusion to protect current employees. In this context, I propose that in the first installment Government may allow building new plants in backward industrial locations up to a yearly limit of 10% of the existing capacity of an industry (5% productivity improvement and 5% new products). The objectives of such a policy are allowing technological absorption and its further development concurrently with the rest of the world, backward area development and decongestion of existing industrial locations. We have to note that when already congested industrial locations are being used for further setting up facilities, new infrastructure development is not taking place. All concerned are ignoring infrastructure and overusing existing facilities. Instead, if new technology is allowed only in new backward location, infrastructure development also takes to an adequate extent.
Allowing only 10% expansion each year in new location with new technology may not disturb existing employment at all, as the market may absorb the new production at the reduced cost of production that the new technology may be able to produce. In this context, productivity of the new technology is an important consideration.
To my email communication campaign on this issue, I got one reply saying the limit can be increased to 20% to encourage employment in new locations.
By taking up this policy stance, Government can actively promote startups in Industry 4.0 Factories and Service Facilities.
Progress of Industry 4.0 in India
Feb 2018
Many Indian companies have started exploring applications of Industry 4.0 in their operations.
According to a recent BCG-CII survey, almost 60% of the surveyed companies have started deploying data analytics in some fashion.
20-40% are experimenting with autonomous robots and additive manufacturing.
More than 75% of the companies indicated that they will be trying at least three or more of industry 4.0 technologies over the next five years. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/company/corporate-trends/et-gbs-2018-industry-4-0-can-transform-indian-manufacturing/articleshow/62893842.cms
Updated 31 October 2018, 15 July 2018
First published on 3 July 2018
27 June was International Day of Micro-, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises.
On the occasion of International Day for MSMEs, SAP SE signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Ministry of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (M/o MSME) to jointly launch Bharat ERP – an exclusive program to empower MSMEs with next-gen technology to fuel their digital journey.
As a part of the MoU, SAP India and the Ministry of MSMEs will collaborate to enable MSMEs become future-ready by helping them in improving transaction execution, accounting and business profitability. The initiative aims to digitally enable nearly 30,000 MSMEs
Bharat ERP will have strong training, learning & enablement approach consisting of the following components-
•SAP will provide software and training curriculum to trainers identified by M/o MSME under the ‘Train the trainer’ method
•The company will facilitate training new man power. Courses on SAP Business One solution are provided in the well-established network of existing technology centres under the control of the M/o MSME
•Post the completion of the course, SAP and the M/o MSME will offer a joint certification to the candidates to assist in increasing their employability and help in recruitment for related initiatives
•Through this program, MSMEs will be able to access cutting edge, next generation technology from SAP that can streamline and integrate key processes such as financials, sales, inventory, and more – with a single business software
MSMEs need a digital platforms to function in the global and national digital economy.
The new skillsets provided and the accompanying SAP platform help them to gain scale, become more competitive and leverage new technological tools to compete in the new digital economy to be based on internet of things.
Mumbai Tarun Bharat organized an open discussion session based on the book The Modi Doctrine - New Paradigms in India's Foreign Policy. Two editors of the book, Vijay Chautahiwale and Uttam Kumar Sinha participated in the discussion and answered various issues raised by the participants.
I was a participant in the programme. Prof Rahul Deshmukh, Computer Science Department, IIT Bombay was also there. He is working on Indic Wikipedia especially Marathi Wikipedia as a member of the administrative board of Wikipedia, India.
Foreword | Arun Jaitley | Modi's Foreign Policy as Problem Solving
Modi: A Global Leader But India First
Chapter 1 | The Modi Phenomenon: Rebooting Indian Foreign Policy | Cleo Paskal
Chapter 2 | Harnessing Multilateral Orders to India's Interests and Principles | Ramesh Thakur
Chapter 3 | Diaspora Factor in Modi's Diplomacy | Sreeram Chaulia
Rajmandala of Bilateral and Regional Connect
Chapter 4 | Steady Progress on India–US Security Ties under Modi Government | Lisa Curtis
Chapter 5 | India's Land Boundary Agreement with Bangladesh: Its Importance and Implications | Tariq A Karim
Chapter 6 | Narendra Modi: The Leader with Clear Vision | Karan Bilimoria
Chapter 7 | India and Sri Lanka: Right Leadership at the Right Time | Asanga Abeyagoonasekera
Chapter 8 | Modi's Modernising Effect: A Perspective from Nepal | Hari Bansh Jha
Chapter 9 | India–Afghanistan Relations: A Review | Shakti Sinha
Chapter 10 | Framework for Sustainable Relationship between Bangladesh and India | Shahab Khan
Chapter 11 | India–Japan Relations on a New High | Takenori Horimoto
Chapter 12 | India–Germany Relationship: Strengthening the Strategic Partnership | Christian Wagner and Gaurav Sharma
Chapter 13 | Modi in Central Asia: Widening Strategic Perimeter | P Stobdan
Chapter 14 | India–Mongolia: Spiritual Neighbours and Strategic Partners | Gonchig Ganbold
Thematically Tied to the World
Chapter 15 | Enhancing Economic and Strategic Space: Key Goals of Prime Minister Modi's Diplomacy | Mukul Asher
Chapter 16 | Cleaning Rivers in India: Experiences from Bavaria/Germany | Martin Grambow, Uttam Kumar Sinha and Hans-Dietrich Uhl
Chapter 17 | Energy Security: A Priority Concern for the Modi Government | Virendra Gupta
Chapter 18 | Modi's Economic Diplomacy: Turning Conventions on their Head | Manoj Ladwa
Chapter 19 | Defence Diplomacy: Good, and Needs to Get Better | Nitin A Gokhale
Chapter 20 | India's NSG Membership Quest: Completely Justified | Satish Chand
Chapter 21 | Modi and India's Civilisational Quest | Anirban Ganguly
Some Observations and Comments on the Essays included in the Book
Chapter 1 | The Modi Phenomenon: Rebooting Indian Foreign Policy | Cleo Paskal
Cleo Paskal is Associate Fellow at Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs London, UK. She says “Modi’s foreign policy during his first two years in power has been like getting a master class in geopolitics.” She points out that in Pacific region only two of the 14 Pacific Island Countries (PICs) have an Indian high commission whereas China has an embassy in every PIC that it has relations with. It shows that density of relationships in the region is low. Unless relationships are established and maintained with key people on the ground, information flows may be less than complete.”
Chapter 4 | Steady Progress on India–US Security Ties under Modi Government | Lisa Curtis
Lisa Curtis is Senior Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation. She observes that Modi has pursued a bolder and more innovative foreign policy than his predecessor, Manmohan Singh. She appreciates the fact that this Indian government has established bonhomie between US and India.
Chapter 5 | India's Land Boundary Agreement with Bangladesh: Its Importance and Implications | Tariq A Karim
Former ambassador of Bangladesh to India, Tariq A Karim in his essay, explains the significance of providing access to enclaves in normalising bilateral ties between India and Bangladesh.
Chapter 2 | Harnessing Multilateral Orders to India's Interests and Principles | Ramesh Thakur
Ramesh Thakur is professor in the Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University.
according to him, India’s long pursuit for the elusive permanent seat at the UN Security Council sis an exercise in futility. Instead of putting more effort to get benefit of funds from the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, Thakur advises India to divert energies to get more financial resources out of G-20 and BRICS.
Sreeram Chaulia is Professor and Executive Director of the Centre for Global Governance and Policy at the OP Jindal Global University. He emphasizes the importance of the diaspora in forging closer Indo-Western ties. He explains the benefits of Modi's address to the big Indian-American crowd at Madison Square. American Congressmen realised that the mood of Indians in USA is highly positive to Modi. This made them to develop a positive turnaround from the hostility displayed by them earlier. Modi not only addressed and impressed the educated and affluent Indian in USA and UK, but also understood and addressed the concerns of poorer Indians in Dubai who are looking forward to a better future in Gulf or India under the leadership of the new Prime Minister.
Modi is orienting the Indian Foreign Service (IFS) towards India’s business interests. The detractors may question the utility of many foreign tours of Modi. But takes an extra push by the Prime Minister for change to occur in the IFS officers focus and purpose.
Indian armed forces attacked the terrorist camps from terrorists are planning to enter India based on credible threat information during the night of 28 September 2016. They informed the Pakistan military about the action they carried out.
Reducing the Waste of Time, Resources and Energy of Enterpreneurs in Starting a Business
Re-engineering Business Startup Process - Role of Productivity Specialist and Industrial Engineers
For an economy’s success or failure, the nuts and bolts that hold the economy together and the plumbing that underlies the economy are also an important contrbuting variables.
The laws that determine how easily a business can be started and closed, the efficiency with which contracts are enforced, the administration process pertaining to a variety of activities—such as getting permits for electricity and doing the paperwork for exports and imports—are all examples of the nuts and bolts. Their malfunctioning can thwart an economy’s progress and make policy instruments, such as good fiscal and monetary policies, less effective.
Creating an efficient and inclusive ethos for enterprise and business is in the interest of all societies. An
economy that facilitates entrepreneurship and creativity among individuals, and provides an enabling
atmosphere for people to realize their full potential, can enhance living standards and promote growth and
shared prosperity.
After decades of debate there is now some convergence in economics about the roles of the market and the state. To leave everything to the free market can lead to major economic malfunction and elevated levels of poverty. Moreover, there is a logical mistake that underlies the market fundamentalist philosophy. To argue that individuals and private businesses should have all the freedom to pursue what they wish and that government should not intervene overlooks the fact that government is nothing but the outcome of individual actions. Hence the edict is internally inconsistent. Fortunately, market fundamentalism has, for the
most part, been relegated to the margins of serious policy discourse.
Turning to the other extreme, it is now widely recognized that to have the state try to do it all is a recipe for economic failure and cronyism. In any national economy there are too many decisions to be made, and too great a variety of skills and talents scattered through society, for any single authority to take effective charge.
It i now agreed that government should intervene in the market to help the disadvantaged, to keep inequality within bounds, to provide public goods and to create correctives for market failures such as those stemming from externalities, information asymmetries and systemic human irrationalities. Government also has the
critical responsibility to provide a nimble regulatory setup that enables ordinary people to put their skills and talents to the best possible use and facilitates the smooth and efficient functioning of businesses and markets.
Promoting a well-functioning, competitive private sector is a major undertaking for any government, especially for one with limited resources and technical capabilities. It requires long-term
comprehensive policies targeting macroeconomic stability; investment in infrastructure, education and health; and the building of technological and entrepreneurial capacity. A well-functioning political system—one in which the government is perceived to be working in the public interest while managing scarce and creativity—both of which are within the power of governments to do—can set an economy on the path to greater
prosperity and development. There is compelling evidence that excessively burdensome regulations can lead to large informal and less-productive sectors, less entrepreneurship and lower rates of employment and growth.
ƒ Doing Business measures business regulations that affect domestic small and medium-size firms in 11 areas
across 189 economies. Ten of these areas—starting a business, dealing with construction permits, getting
electricity, registering property, getting credit, protecting minority investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts and resolving insolvency—are included in the ease of doing business ranking. The 11th measure is labor market regulation, which is not included in the ranking process by World Bank tam for the year 2015 report.
Cumbersome procedures involved in starting businesses in formal manner result in waste of energy, resources and time of entrepreneurs. Hence less number of formal entrepreneurs are developed in the system. As competition is the basic variable that increases social benefit, any system that discourages entrepreneurship results in less social benefit.
Productivity specialist can analyse the business starting up procedures in the 10 areas highlighted by World Bank and redesign the processes that reduce complexity and compliance burden. Industrial Engineering discipline attempted to reduce waste in office procedures through O & M studies. Subsequently, industrial engineers also developed expertise in reducing waste in information systems. Reengineering movement is also industrial engineering activity that recognized the possibility of radical improvement by special study and understanding of the power of new technology and using the new technology in ways different from the present process steps.
The need to re-engineer business startup processes is highlighted by the World Bank. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is taking up special drive to increase of ease of doing business in India. Time for the productivity specialists in various organizations to spare some time and come out with suggestions to improve present process as well as to institute radically new processes to make the startup process simple and motivating.
Let us rededicate to the cause of Productivity during the Productivity Week.
Narayana Rao K.V.S.S.
Source for the material on importance of ease of doing business
Tata Trusts in association with University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) hosted a global forum ‘Innovating for a Sustainable Energy Future’ at the Taj Mahal Hotel, New Delhi, on Monday, January 11, 2016.
