Sunday, July 31, 2016

China's Growth and Decline



China followed the growth plan earlier followed by Japan and South Korea. Similarly it is now into decline phase.

It grew at a rate of 8.7% during 1980 to 2015.
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/how-slow-will-china-go-by-lee-jong-wha-2016-07

Saturday, July 30, 2016

7,000 Muslim students are studying in 1,200 Saraswati Shishu Mandirs and Saraswati Vidya Mandirs -News 2016



India has to achieve unity among all religions existing in India. Social organizations have to take steps for facilitating it.

It is a good news that was reported in the Times of India. 7,000 Muslim students are studying in 1,200 Saraswati Shishu Mandirs and Saraswati Vidya Mandirs. All Indians have to appreciate the families that are sending their children to these schools and also administrators of these schools who are admitting them and managing all to have a peaceful coexistence respecting each other and their ways of life.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/UPs-RSS-schools-claim-30-rise-in-Muslim-kids-in-2-yrs/articleshow/52825720.cms

Mumbai Ahmedabad High Speed Rail Line Project



Is it profitable?

Yes, it makes sense with the financing terms given by Japan

Japan will loan India Rs. 79,000 cr. for 50 years at 0.1%
Interest per year 79 crores.
The project cost is about 98,000 cr. over 7 years, with 500 kilometer of railway lines laid
Assume 36 trips per day, in each direction – total  72 trips.
Assume 1,000 passengers per trip - 72,000 passengers a day.
At a ticket price of  Rs. 3,000 per trip, that’s about Rs. 21 cr. of revenue per day.
Assume that occupancy only for working days, about 250 days in a year giving about Rs. 5,000 cr. of revenue.
Assume 20% gross profit EBIT – Rs. 1,000 cr. of pre-interest profit per year.
RS. 79 crore interest per year can be paid.
The principal amount per year, after the 15th year, will be about Rs. 2,000 cr. per year.
It can be paid out of depreciation and EBIT. Railways have additional sources of income from monetizing station space and facilities.
This initial project will reduce cost for further projects like Mumbai - Pune and Ahmedabad - Delhi. Country has to be connected through high speed trains.

http://capitalmind.in/2015/12/the-economics-of-the-bullet-train-and-whether-it-makes-financial-sense-to-take-a-0-1-loan/

More details
http://www.iimahd.ernet.in/assets/snippets/workingpaperpdf/3022551392016-03-58.pdf

http://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/india-pillai.pdf

http://www.unep.org/transport/lowcarbon/PDFs/Role_of_High_Speed_Rail_Final.pdf

Countercyclical Investment in PSUs in Manufacturing and Services - Option for Indian Government


A recent report on investment in India by HSBC pointed out that there is 21% increase in Government investment and -1.4% decrease in pvt. sector investment in India.  Private sector is shying away from investing. Even through government has increased investment, it has not started any public sector units. Government is totally against public sector investment in manufacturing and service sector businesses. But such a stance need not be taken  by the government. No doubt Indian society and polity moved away from the earlier economic policy that wanted public sector to have the commanding heights of the economy in India. Now such a stance is not needed. But Government can take up investment in Public sector units as countercyclic measure. When private sector is not investing and governments project planners have profitable projects, government can come forward and invest in PSUs. When economy is in boom and private sector is investing with enthusiasm government need not provide additional funds out of its budget to public sector for further investment. Only PSU units, who have surplus funds and good investment projects can be allowed to invest. Or they may be asked to pay dividends to government during good times. Government thus gets into investment in PSUs only as countercyclic investment policy.



Now, Government should investment Rs. 25,000 crores in new public sector units and start one PSU with Rs. 1000 crore equity in each state. This may employment to people at the rate of 4000 persons in every public sector unit in every state. This will create new townships having 6000 people on average and this may give rise employment to many more people to serve this size of population. This will kickstart economy in 25 places and many small scale units will come up. Government will earn goodwill from the people.

Government should not shy away from PSUs. Government involvement in economic activities is an age old practice in India. Chanakya wrote elaborately on King's economic activities in Artha Shastra.

Government will be able to know the likely malpractices that businessmen can resort to and also know the difficulties of businessmen by having its own PSUs. While we have moved away the old thinking of commanding heights of the economy being in the hands of PSUs, we still have to develop the competency to run our PSUs with adequate effectiveness and efficiency.

Rational public sector investment is needed.

If public sectors units cannot be planned and managed by Government to the extent they are required for a meaningful involvement in economic activity of the country, it is a failure of political and administrative wings of the Government.

Can Public Sectors Units be Closed?

Yes. When economic organizations are started there is a big risk of failure. If the failure materializes, the government is free to close the unit. Failure of business organizations is part of competitive business economy and government units also fail. Failure should not held against government. The specific errors committed can be identified and rectified in the future.

Failure of certain units should not mean Government has to run away from PSU investment. Every body needs to know that Tatas and Birlas have many failed businesses in the groups and many of them are closed. The arguments for reducing the size of PSU investment has won the day and served its useful purpose. Now the argument has to be in favour of Government reigniting growth  by finding investment opportunities and in manufacturing sector and investing in it to a minimum threshold level in depressed economy conditions.


Rational public sector investment is needed.

Closure of failed PSUs ok. But start new PSUs.

Start one PSU in every state each year with investment of Rs. 1000 cr in each.

Thursday, July 28, 2016

High Net Worth Households in India and Their Wealth

India Vision 2025 - $7 Trillion GDP



29 July 2016

Mr. Cyrus Mistry started the pratice of holding a meeting of CEOs of Tata group companies on this day, the birthday of Bharat Ratna J.R.D. Tata (29 July). In the meeting of 2016, Mistry called for touching $350 billion revenue by 2025. During the year 2015-16, Tata group invested $9 billion globally. Tata group turnover was $103 billion during 2015-16.  $350 billion revenue would mean a GDP contribution of $175 billion. This sort of estimate would give an estimate of $3 trillion of large scale organizations. MSME can contribute equal amount of $6 trillion. That leaves $1 trillion as contribution from agriculture.

So the break up of $7 trillion would be

Agriculture           $1 trillion
Mining                 $ 0,25 trillion
Manufacturing -   $ 1.75 trillion
Services           -   $ 4  trillion


29 May 2016

Startups in Digital Technology Space in India by 2025 - One Lakh

India will have one lakh startups by 2025 contributing $500 billion of value and giving employment to 70 lakh people. Mohan Das Pai now angel investor (formerly CFO, Infosys).

Average size of the successful start up (a small scale organization) will be $5 million (around 30 to 35 crore rupees). It provides employment to 70 people.


India Will Be Fastest-Growing Economy for Coming Decade, Harvard Researchers Predict

By RAYMOND ZHONG
Jan 1, 2016 - Wall Street Journal
http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2016/01/01/india-will-be-fastest-growing-economy-for-coming-decade-harvard-researchers-predict/


GDP of India - $7 trillion by 2025


A.T. Kearney in a report of April 2014 gives estimated GDP of India as $7 trillion.

Mumbai City will grow to $370 to 390 billion from $80 billion now.

18 Mega cities will emerge.

India 2025 - $7 Trillion  from 2 Trillion in 2014

https://www.atkearney.com/documents/10192/4408576/Supply+Chain+2025-Trends+and+Implications+for+India.pdf/5a65965e-2378-404e-8829-7664bc1b637c


India is 3rd Largest Economy in terms of GDP-PPP Valuation (2015)

                           
                                  Unit: Billion, US  Dollar

                                                         China                        USA                         India
GDP-PPP Valuation                       18,976                      18,125                        7,997

Source : International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook WEO, April 2015

Industry Visions for 2025

Automobiles - Vision 2025


2.15 Million vehicles produced in 2013-14.
7% of the country’s GDP.
6 Million-plus vehicles to be sold annually, by 2020.
The auto industry produced a total of 2.15 Million vehicles, including passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, three-wheelers and two-wheelers in 2013-14 as against 2.06 Million in 2012-13, registering a growth of 4.04% in a year.
The total turnover in 2010-11 was USD 58.5 Billion, turnover by 2016 is slated to be USD 145 Billion.
Automotive mission plan, 2006-16:
To emerge as the world’s destination of choice for design and manufacture of automobiles and auto components with output reaching a level of USD 145 Billion, accounting for more than 10% of the GDP and providing additional employment to 25 Million people by 2016.

Automobile Components - Vision 2025


US$ 200 billion by 2025.
Source: Make in India - Automobile Components
http://guide-india.blogspot.in/2015/02/make-in-india-automobile-components-20.html



Aviation - Vision 2025

The Tata SIA Airlines Ltd’s research gives the estimate that civil aviation in India has the potential to create an economic value of $250 billion and contribute to around 5 percent of the country’s GDP by 2025.  It sees a three-fold rise in domestic air traffic by 2025.

Contribution of Civil Aviation sector to India’s GDP in 2009 is estimated to be 1.5% as per the recent study carried out by Oxford Economics. The study has also estimated that the sector supports a total of 9.95 million jobs. 

• Passenger handling capacity has risen three-folds from 72 million (FY 06) to over 220
million (FY 11)
• Cargo handling capacity has risen from 0.5 million MT (FY 06) to 3.3 million MT (FY 11) 

If every Indian in the middle-class income bracket takes just one flight per annum, it would result in a sale of 300 million tickets, a big jump from the 70 million domestic tickets sold in 2014-15.

The first vision statement in the draft NCAP 2015 speaks of creating an ecosystem that will enable 30 crore (300 million) domestic tickets to be sold by 2022 and 50 (500 million) crore by 2027, from the current seven crore (70 million). 


One of the ideas floated by the government is to cap fares at Rs 2,500 (all-inclusive) per passenger for a one-hour flight on select regional routes.
http://civilaviation.gov.in/sites/default/files/moca_001320.pdf  - 12 plan working group document.





Biotechnology Vision 2025


Modi Govt. Unveiled National Biotechnology Development Strategy 2015-2020 with the objective of achieving $100 billion by 2025. The present industry size is $7 billion.

150 technology transfer organizations will come up in India as a part indigenous technology development mission.


Chemicals

Chemical Industry Size Could be $400 billion by 2025


Proposal to establish an autonomous USD 100 Mn chemical innovation fund by securing 10% of the total inclusive national innovation fund set up by the National Innovation Council

The Indian Chemical Industry comprises both small and large-scale units, and presently, there are about 70,000 chemical manufacturing units located in the country (Deptt. Of Chemicals and
Petrochemicals-Draft National Chemical Policy-December 2013) a major component (in numbers) are covered in the small scale sector.

Indian chemical industry is expected to register a growth of 8-9% in the next decade.

India’s chemical industry is likely to touch $214 billion (approx ₹13,91,000 crore) in the next four years from $139 (approx ₹9,03,500 crore) in fiscal 2014 with estimated growth of around 9 per cent a year.  There is robust growth of consuming sectors till fiscal 2025. Hence there is very strong outlook for the key end-user industries. The demand for intermediate chemical products and basic chemical is expected to surge in the coming years.

A Tata Strategic Management Group study  report states that  critical issues for the chemical industry are availability of key feedstock, infrastructure status,  access to technology, energy security and ease of doing business.
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/macro-economy/indias-chemical-industry-to-touch-214b-by-2019-report/article7818782.ece

Petrochemical Intermediates


The installed capacity is  6 million tons per annum (MTPA).   India would fall short by 25–30 MT by 2025, which would mean an additional import cost of INR 150,000 to 200,000 crore (USD 24 to 32 billion) a year for intermediates.

A level of 85 per cent self-sufficiency in petrochemical intermediates is a necessary and achievable aspiration for the country to have a vibrant downstream chemical industry. This would require India to install 20–25 MTPA of additional petrochemical intermediate capacity – a number four times the volume of the entire current installed capacity. It means 70–90 additional plants (at economically viable scale) across 30–40 products have to be planned and implemented.

▪ Petrochemical Intermediates
– Acetic acid, vinyl acetate, acetic anhydride, acetate ester
– Ethylene oxide, glycols, ethoxylate, ethanolamine, glycol ether
– Cumene, phenol, acetone, resin
– Propylene oxide, polyols, propylene glycol
– Acrylic acid, acrylic acid ester, superabsorbent polymer
– SBR, PBR, NBR, PCR
– Ethyl benzene, styrene, ABS resin

Basic inputs to make Petrochemical Intermediates
Petrochemical building blocks
▪ Methanol
▪ Ethylene
▪ Propylene
▪ C4, C5
▪ Benzene, toluene, xylene

Although the Petrochemical Industry has consistently outperformed the GDP Growth rates of India – growing at around 1.5 times the GDP growth rate, recent developments consequent to advantaged feedstock availability in the US and Middle East have led to a situation where announced investments by Indian Companies on production of Petrochemical Building Blocks have fallen short of future requirements.


The chemical industry’s R&D spends would need to go up significantly from current levels of less than 0.5% of sales to reach closer to global benchmarks of 4% of sales (implying R&D spends of ~$12 billion by 2017.

The chemical industry is central to the modern world economy having a typical sales-to-GDP ratio of 5-6%. 

With the current size of $108 billion the Indian chemical industry accounts for approximately 7% of Indian GDP. The chemicals sector accounts for about 14% in overall index of industrial production (IlP). Share of industry in national exports is around 11% (2011?)

Source Documents

Download them and read them in detail to understand the growth of the sector

http://www.petrochemconclave.com/presentation/2016/Mr.SMitra.pdf
http://www.petrochemconclave.com/presentation16.html - Index to presentations
http://ficci.in/spdocument/20441/Knowledge-Paper-chem.pdf
http://planningcommission.gov.in/aboutus/committee/wrkgrp12/wg_chem0203.pdf
http://www.mckinsey.com/global-locations/asia/india/en/latest-thinking
Handbook on India Chemical Industry
https://www.rolandberger.com/media/pdf/Roland_Berger_India_Chem_20101109.pdf



Construction - Vision 2025

Construction industry plays a pivotal role in developing country’s infrastructure and accounts for nearly 45% of the total investment in the Infrastructure. Construction sector is also the second
largest employer after the agriculture sector.

Construction industry can be broadly classified into two sectors i.e. organized and unorganized. The organized sector includes more than 30,000 organisations whereas the standalone contractors in the unorganized sector number more than 120,000.

Construction equipment accounts for 21-23 % of the total project cost

As per estimates by Off-Highway research, the sale of construction equipment is expected to reach 84,000 units by 2014, of which infrastructure and real estate sectors will account for 70%. This translates into a CAGR of about 20% over the next five years (2009-2014) in sales of construction
equipment.

About 250 ancillary industries such as cement, steel, brick, timber and building material are dependent on the construction industry. A unit increase in expenditure in this sector has a multiplier effect and the capacity to generate income at much higher growth rates.


Real Estate


11.5 million homes a year - US$ 1 trillion a year market


The country is expected to become the world's third largest construction market by 2025, adding 11.5 million homes a year to become a US$ 1 trillion a year market, according to a study by Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics.
http://www.ibef.org/archives/detail/b3ZlcnZpZXcmMzY0OTgmNTI1

Roads

The road network stands at 3.3 million km in (2006?). Of this, rural roads comprise around 2.7 million km, i.e. about 85 percent. Overall village accessibility stood at 54 percent in the year 2000, although position in respect of accessibility to large size habitations has been much better.

 However, in order to give a boost to rural connectivity, a Rural Roads Programme known as the
Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) was launched in December 2000. As a departure from
the earlier programmes, the PMGSY is being implemented as a 100 percent centrally funded scheme. As per the current guidelines, the PMGSY covers all habitations above 500 population to be provided with all-weather rural roads. In case of hills, deserts and tribal areas, the threshold is relaxed and covers all habitations above 250 population. It is estimated that about 1.79 lakh unconnected habitations need to be taken up under the PMGSY programme. This would involve new construction in a length of about 375,000 km at an estimated cost of Rs. 78,000 crore and improvements of 372,000 km at an estimated cost of Rs. 59,000 crore. Upto the end of December, 2006, a total of about 83,000 habitations have been covered and rural road works for an amount of Rs.38,387 crore have been sanctioned.

When the PMGSY was launched in 2000, it was estimated that about 347,000 habitations
out of a total of 825,000 habitations were without any all-weather access. Thus, 40 per cent of the
habitations were cut off from the country’s mainstream of development. According to latest figures
made available by the state governments under a detailed survey undertaken to identify core networks
about 1.79 lakh unconnected habitations need to be taken up under the PMGSY programme.

PMGSY Programme: New Connectivity

Habitation                Number of Rural                        Length Required            Total Estimated cost
Population Group    Unconnected Habitations           (km)                                (Rs billion)
1000+                        60,030                                      138,888
500-999                    79,208                                       160,754                             784.18
250-499 *                 39,530                                         75,690
Total                       178,768                                       375,332                             784.18
* Only in hill states, desert and tribal areas as per PMGSY eligibility.


In addition, upgradation of roads of the core network will be undertaken where required to provide
connectivity to market centres and other social infrastructure. A length of 372,816 km for upgrading at an estimated cost of Rs.590.330 billion has been included out of a total length of 1,134,112 km,











Roads in India - Estimates up to 2015
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTSARREGTOPTRANSPORT/3562298-1182924139500/21389008/3_CES_Presentation.pdf
Vision 2025 for Rural Roads. Doc of 2005:  http://pmgsy.nic.in/downloads/3julsep05_eng.pdf


Cement Industry


Cement demand is projected to grow to 2.5 to 2.7 times the current volumes and reach 550 to 600 MTPA by 2025. Per capita cement consumption is likely to increase from 185 kg currently to 385 to 415 kg in 2025. This growth will likely be led by investments in the infrastructure sector, with subsectors such as roads, power, and irrigation leading the charge.

An additional capacity of 330 to 380 MTPA for cement and 240 to 270 MTPA for clinker could be required by 2025, translating to an investment of close to Rs 300,000 crore.
http://www.indiainfoline.com/article/news/cement-vision-2025-scaling-new-heights-5915139538_1.html


Electrical Machinery - Vision 2025


Output of US$ 100 billion by 2022

As of 2011-12, the Indian EE industry has grown close to  Rs. 1.20 lakh crore (US$ 25 billion). It
contributes 1.4% to the nation’s GDP and 10.0% to the manufacturing GDP.

Based on investment estimates and capacity addition targets, domestic demand for generation equipment (BTG) could be in the range of US$ 25-30 billion by 2022; for the T&D equipment industry, it may be US$ 70–75 billion. The EE industry is projected to provide direct employment to 1.5 million people and indirect employment to 2 million by 2022.
http://dhi.nic.in/writereaddata/Content/indian_mission_plan_2012-2022.pdf


Electronics Design and Manufacturing - Vision 2025


Production in India of apprx. USD 300 billion.

25% of country’s GDP by 2025 from IT and ESDM (Nasscom-IESA)
http://guide-india.blogspot.com/2015/01/make-in-india-electronic-systems.html


Food Processing - Vision 2025

The Indian food processing industry is valued at approx. ` 78,094 crore for the year 2011-
12.
The industry has shown  Compounded
Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.4% during the period 2006-07 to 2011-12.

Information Technology and Business Process Services - Vision 2025


Indian technology and services industry is on track to reach its goal of $200 billion to $225 billion in revenues by 2020 and furthermore, to reach revenues of $350 billion by 2025.
http://www.nasscom.in/nasscom-perspective-2025-shaping-digital-revolution
http://www.livemint.com/Industry/z0n81ojxkSBELvmZw1cEyI/Digital-tech-startups-to-drive-ITBPM-growth.html

Insurance - Vision 2025

USD 250 bn insurance industry in India


CII sets 2025 vision for building a customer centric and value creating USD 250 bn insurance industry in India
Life insurance industry to grow at 12% CAGR over next decade to reach USD 160 bn – USD 175 bn and general insurance to grow at 22% CAGR to reach a GWP of USD 80 bn. 


General Insurance Vision 2025


From a ` 12,000 crore top-line industry in 2001–02, today it is worth ` 70,000 crore (FY 2013), clocking an annual growth rate of 17%. The industry today provides a cover of ` 1,000
lakh crore,

2025 - GWP to GDP penetration of 1.4%

Gross Written Premium

— Growth CAGR of ~14–15% resulting in GWP of ~Rs. 3,50,000 crore by 2025. (5 times of 2013 GWP)
— With no improvement in combined ratio, the industry would continue to have a negative value creation of ` 20–25,000 crore while delivering average RoE of 10–12%.
— Capital requirements remain relatively high –  RS.` 20–25,000 crore of fresh infusion.

Leather Industry - Vision 2025

Total production of Indian leather industry stands at USD 11 Billion
Exports have grown from USD 1.42 Billion in 1990-91 to USD 6 Billion in 2013-14
India produces 2 Billion sq. feet of leather, accounting for 10% of the world leather requirements
Domestic market expected to double in next five years
Exports projected to grow at 24% per annum over next five years

The global footwear market is estimated to be worth $192.3 bnin 2008, a growth of 2% over
the 2007 value. The Indian footwear industry is estimated to be worth just INR 160 bn or $4 bn[2].
It is the second largest global producer of footwear after China, accounting for more than 14 % of
global footwear production of 14.52 bn pairs.

The Indian footwear market is expected to worth INR 475 bn by 2025, representing a compounded
annual growth rate of 7%.


Media & Entertainment - Vision 2025


Media and entertainment (M&E) industry in India has the potential to reach $100 billion (about Rs 6.5 lakh crore) by 2025
http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report-india-s-media-and-entertainment-sector-has-potential-to-touch-100-billion-by-2025-2136016

Mining - Vision 2025


Mining Contribution to GDP - $61 billion by 2025


The contribution of mining to India’s GDP has fallen from 1.2 per cent to 1 per cent in the recent years.

The mining industry has the potential to create 6 million additional total jobs by 2025, accounting for 12 per cent of the new non-farm job gap. The mining industry could contribute USD 125 billion to India’s output and additional USD 47 billion to India’s GDP by 2025.

In 2012, the mining sector accounted for 3 million jobs directly, and induced an additional 8 million
jobs.

If mining grows more rapidly, it could increase its direct and induced contribution to India’s output
from USD 50 billion in 2012 to USD 126 billion by 2025 (additional USD 47 billion over business-as usual scenario). Additional contribution to GDP will be USD 47 billion )

India’s mining sector has been growing slower than other major mining jurisdictions such as China, Brazil, Canada, the United States, Chile and Australia. The real value add of India’s mining sector to the GDP is very low at USD 14.4 billion against that of China (USD 150 billion), Australia (USD 38 billion) and Brazil (USD 21 billion). Between 2010 and 2012, India’s mining sector grew at 0.8 per cent compared to 15 per cent for China, 5.3 per cent for the United States, 2.5 per cent for Canada and 2 per cent for Brazil. So there is substantial scope for increasing mining output in India. India has
endowment of the top 5 or 6 reserves globally across commodities such as thermal coal and iron
ore. So availability of ore is there. Investment and technology to mine the ore and process it have to be arranged.

Download Report on Mining by CII-McKinsey from
http://www.mckinsey.com/global-locations/asia/india/en/latest-thinking

Oil and Gas - Vision 2025


The natural gas demand is all set to grow significantly at a CAGR of 6.8% from 242.6 MMSCMD in 2012-13 to 654.55 MMSCMD in 2026-27
http://www.pngrb.gov.in/Hindi-Website/pdf/vision-NGPV-2030-06092013.pdf


Pharmaceuticals - Vision 2025


The Indian pharmaceuticals market increased at a CAGR of   17.46 per cent in 2015 from US$ 6 billion in 2005 and is expected   to expand at a CAGR of 15.92 per cent to US$ 55 billion by 2020.

http://www.ibef.org/industry/pharmaceutical-india.aspx


Ports and Shipping - Vision 2025

Ports


Long coastline of 7,517 km and navigable inland waterways of 14,500 km offering immense potential
 for maritime sector development.
150 + projects for investment  identified in Indian maritime sector
Opportunities for investment of USD 19 Billion in Inland Waterway development and USD 50 Billion in Port-led Development under ‘Sagarmala’

‘Sagarmala’ - New Port Development and Port Modernization
Greenfield major ports at Vadhavan (Maharashtra), Sagar Island (West Bengal),  Paradip Outer Harbour and Potential locations in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu

Trans-shipment Hubs at Enayam (Tamil Nadu) and Vizhinjam (Kerala)

Port Mordernization:
Increasing draft at Kamarajar (Ennore), Paradip and Mormugao Ports to 18m
500 MMTPA port capacity augmentation in Major Ports by 2025
‘Jal Marg Vikas’ project for capacity augmentation for navigation and shipping in River Ganga: NW-1 (1620 km)
Development of 111 National Waterways
Development of cruise terminals at Mormugao, Chennai, Mumbai, Chennai and Kochi.

Shipping

Market size of shipbuilding expected in 2025 – US$ 25 billion
Market size of shipbuilding at present – US$ 5 billion
http://www.mapsofindia.com/my-india/government/indias-fleet-of-flying-dutchman

Railways


Investment in Railways


Indian Railways plans to invest $ 142 billion in five years (2016-2020) and hope to double this investment figure in the next five-year cycle (2020-2025)
http://www.business-standard.com/content/b2b-manufacturing-industry/indian-railways-plans-to-invest-142-billion-in-five-years-suresh-prabhu-116011800166_1.html

Railway Revenue


Freight 600 million tonnes
Passengers: 2175 billion Passenger Kilometres
http://guide-india.blogspot.com/2015/06/make-in-india-railway-sector-items.html


Renewable Energy - Vision for 2025


Government announced in Budget of 2015-16, the target o 175 GW by 2022.At a capacity addition ability of 15 GW per year, 2025 vision can be 230 GW.
http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/0YGX9c5vv0WyRiI3QhLCuL/Make-in-India-and-renewable-energy.html

Roads and Highways - Vision for 2025


India will develop road projects spanning 50,000 kilometers and entailing investments of about $250 billion over the next five years (FY 2016-17 to FY2020-2021).

The 12th five year plan 2012-17 estimated the road sector’s investment to be $95 billion.

NHAI has a target of awarding 10,000 km of projects in the fiscal year 2015-16. Upto January, 6353 km of projects have already been awarded. Cabinet Minister Shri Nitin Gadkari is confident of completing 100 km per day in due course of time.
http://www.livemint.com/Politics/Q8f0KV6DV4tybWo25GZBZJ/NHAI-plans-50000-km-road-projects-worth-250-billion.html

Space Exploration and Satellite Launching - Vision 2025


The current budget of ISRO is around $12 billion.
Global space industry volume is $300 billion. India has talent and space to grow.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/science/make-in-india-isro-lures-industry-into-space-with-technology-promise-brand-benefit/articleshow/51027630.cms

Vision 2025 for Textiles




Document created by expert committee and presented to textile ministry
http://texmin.nic.in/Reports/Vision%20Strategy%20Action%20Plan%20for%20Indian%20Textile%20Sector.pdf

$350 billion  for domestic consumption
$300 billion for exports


Thermal Power - Vision 2025


Thermal power is the mainstay of electricity generation in India. It stood at over 196 GW in 2015, of which coal-based capacities alone amounted to 171 GW. Plans are in progress for addition of another 175 GW of thermal power capacity by 2022.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/toshiba/power-systems/thermal/the-twin-problems-that-indias-thermal-power-sector-must-overcome/articleshow/51056423.cms

http://www.epw.in/journal/2016/10/commentary/private-thermal-power-liberal-policy-regime.html

Tourism and Hospitality - Vision 2025


$88.6 billion by 2025

Tourism and hospitality contributed about $44.1 billion to India’s GDP in 2015 and is likely to touch $88.6 billion by 2025.

Wellness

http://www.wellnessindia.com/interview/beauty-and-wellness/ic.2/



Sectors' Review Ends
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A.T. Kearney in a report of April 2014 gives estimated GDP of India as $7 trillion.

Mumbai City will grow to $370 to 390 billion from $80 billion now.

18 Mega cities will emerge.

India 2025 - $7 Trillion  from 2 Trillion in 2014

https://www.atkearney.com/documents/10192/4408576/Supply+Chain+2025-Trends+and+Implications+for+India.pdf/5a65965e-2378-404e-8829-7664bc1b637c


New Technology Contribution - $1 Trillion by 2025


Potential adoption of 12 empowering technologies in India

Mobile internet, cloud technology, Automation of knowledge work (through mobile phones), Digital payments, Digital identity, internet of things, Intelligent transportation and distribution, Advanced geographic information systems, Next generation genomics, Advanced oil and gas exploration and recovery, Renewable energy, Advanced energy storage

To assess the potential impact of the 12 technologies on the economy of India, McKinsey sized more than 40 applications in six sectors of the economy: financial services, education and skills, healthcare, agriculture and food, energy, and infrastructure.

The total impact of the sized applications could amount to $240 billion to $500 billion a year by 2025. Given the contributions of these sectors to India's GDP, the estimate across the entire economy, is estimated to be $550 billion to $1 trillion by 2025.

Financial services. The applications  could have an economic value of $32 billion to $140 billion a year by 2025. As many as 300 million Indians could gain access to banking services and raise their incomes by 5 to 30 percent thanks to better access to credit and the ability to save and make remittances.

Education and skills. The remote learning, massive open online courses (MOOCs), and other digital systems could have an economic impact of $60 billion to $90 billion a year by 2025 thanks to higher productivity among a larger number of skilled workers. India could have about 24 million more high-school and college-educated workers and 18 million to 33 million more vocationally trained workers by 2025 as a result of digitization in the education sector.

Health Care: By 2025, the total economic impact could be $25 billion to $65 billion a year, including $15 billion that could be saved through systems to reduce the problem of counterfeit drugs. Some 400 million of India's poor could get access to better care through technologies that bring medical expertise to modestly skilled health workers in remote areas.

Agriculture and food. Technology applications could create $45 billion to $80 billion a year in additional value in the sector. More than half of that would come from hybrid and genetically modified crops, precision farming (using sensors and GIS-based soil, weather, and water data to guide farming decisions), and mobile Internet–based farm-extension and market-information services. These improvements could raise the incomes of as many as 100 million farmers

Energy. Collectively, the technology applications  in energy could have an economic value of $50 billion to $95 billion a year by 2025.  The largest benefit would come from smart metering, which could save $15 billion to $20 billion a year by 2025 in reduced transmission losses. Unconventional-oil and -gas development might generate value of $10 billion a year by 2025.

Together, infrastructure technologies can contribute $30 billion to $45 billion a year in value by 2025.

India needs to  raise its investment in research and development, which in 2010 was 0.87 percent of GDP, compared with 1.7 percent in China and 3.36 percent in South Korea to make good use of new technologies.
http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/high-tech/our-insights/indias-tech-opportunity-transforming-work-empowering-people


Indo - US Trade

Due to the fourfold growth of bilateral trade since 2006 to 100 billion USD in 2014, both the governments are now keen and committed to further improving trade relations. The time is ripe for a new ambition to be set in its trade relations and improve the trade to $500 billion.


1.6 trillion USD worth of investment will be required by 2025 and 3.6 trillion USD by 2034 for India to transform into a 10 trillion USD economy. An important share of this investment will need
to come from international sources investing in new technologies and setting up global research and development (R&D) centres in India. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to India rose by
26% in 2014 to an estimated 35 billion USD.
http://www.pwc.in/assets/pdfs/publications/2015/indo-us-trade-mission-500-billion-usd-iacc-report.pdf


Updated  31 July 2016,  30 May 2016, 16 May 2916, 12 March 2016, 8 March 2016, 1 Jan 2016



Please inform if you have come across any interesting information regarding any sector through comments

Wednesday, July 27, 2016

India - 2016 - Painting Competition for Children on Energy Conservation



First Level at State Level

Second Level - National Level


For the Maharashtra State advertisement appeared in Time of India dated 27 July 2016 in Page 14.

Last year advertisements for the final function

https://beeindia.gov.in/sites/default/files/press_releases/EC%20Day%20Advertisement%20%28Hindi%29.pdf

https://beeindia.gov.in/sites/default/files/press_releases/EC%20Day%20Advertisement%20%28English%29.pdf

India - National Energy Conservation Awards 2016



Bureau of Energy Efficiency India invites applications for award of National Energy Conservation Awards from various subsectors of the economy. The award is based on energy conservation effort during 2014 - 16

SECTOR

LARGE/ MEDIUM /SMALL SCALE Industry
Aviation Sector
Thermal Power Stations
Electricity Distribution Companies
Office & BPO Buildings
Universities and Engineering Institution Buildings
Hotels & Hospitals Building
Shopping Mall
Railway Stations
Railway Workshops
Zonal Railways
State Road Transport Corporation & Undertakings
Ordnance Factory
Municipality
SDA (State Designated Agencies)
State PWD and CPWD
Manufacturers of BEE Star Labeled Equipments/ Appliances
Best Energy Auditor and Energy Auditing Agencies

The last date for submitting filled application form is:

28 September 2016

To download application forms/formats
Visit https://beeindia.gov.in/awards/nation-conservation-awards-2016

MSME Sector India - Vision 2020 - 2025 - 2030- 2035



http://www.smechamberofindia.com/  - http://www.indiansmechamber.com/

CII - MSME Sector -


Grant Thornton - FICCI MSME Sector Vision 2020
MSME contributes 8% to India's GDP. Next to Agriculture this is the biggest single biggest grouping.
http://www.ficci.com/spdocument/20143/Grant-Thornton-FICCI%20MSME.pdf




2016
This table probably presents the right picture of MSME in India.

CONTRIBUTION OF MSME SECTOR IN GDP AND OUTPUT
 (at 2004-05 prices)
Year          Gross Value of       Share of MSME sector in total GDP (%)      Share of MSME
                 Output of MSME    Manufacturing   Services           Total               Manufacturing
                 Manufacturing         Sector MSME   Sector MSME                         output in total
                 Sector                                                                                                 Manufacturing
                 (` in crore)                                                                                          Output (%)
2006-07    1198818                    7.73                  27.40                35.13                 42.02
2007-08    1322777                    7.81                  27.60                35.41                 41.98
2008-09    1375589                    7.52                  28.60                36.12                 40.79
2009-10    1488352                    7.45                 28.60                 36.05                 39.63
2010-11    1653622                    7.39                 29.30                 36.69                 38.50
2011-12    1788584                    7.27                 30.70                 37.97                 37.47
2012-13    1809976                    7.04                 30.50                 37.54                 37.33

Source for the table  Table 2.3 Annual Report 2015 - 16 of Ministry of MSME, Government of India
http://msme.gov.in/WriteReadData/DocumentFile/MEME%20ANNUAL%20REPORT%202015-16%20ENG.pdf

http://www.eaindustry.nic.in/industrial_handbook_200809.pdf

MSME census 2007 - http://fisme.org.in/document/FinalReport010711.pdf

2015

The share of Micro, Small & Medium Enterprise (MSME) contribution to GDP will significantly increase from the current 8 percent to 15 percent by 2020, according to a study report by KPMG-CII.

The MSME sector contributed 8% to India's GDP  for 2011-12. India has the potential to increase the share of contribution to GDP from its MSME sector from current 8 percent to about 15 percent by the year 2020," it said.

According to study,  employment to the extent of 50 percent of the overall employment representing 300 million jobs across agricultural, manufacturing and services sectors will be provided by MSME.

The GDP growth rate is likely to achieve 8.5 percent level and India is expected to be an approximately USD 5 trillion economy by the year 2025.
http://www.smetimes.in/smetimes/news/top-stories/2014/Oct/28/share-of-msme-in-gdp-may-reach-15-pc-by-2020-study631653.html



Budget
Government of India has announced founding a apex bank to fund MSME sector through indigenous money lenders and small banks. It also announced Credit Guarantee fund for MSME units. Thus it has taken steps to increase bank credit/finance support to MSME sector in India.


Updated 30 July 2016,  17 June 2015

Sunday, July 24, 2016

Modern Indian Family - Evolution



Thesis Chapter
Indian Family System
http://shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/8117/10/10_chapter%202.pdf


Indian Society and Social Change
Calicut University BA Sociology Distance Education Notes
http://www.universityofcalicut.info/SDE/BA_sociology_indian_society.pdf

Indian Society and Ways of Living
Organization of Social Life in India
http://asiasociety.org/education/indian-society-and-ways-living

Modern Indian Family Law
Werner Menski
Routledge, 16-Dec-2013 - Political Science - 448 pages


This text presents an overview of the major issues and topics in current developments in Indian family law. Indian law has produced a number of very important innovations in the past two decades, which are also highly instructive for law reform debates in western and other jurisdictions. Topics discussed are: marriage, divorce, polygamy, maintenance, property and the Uniform Civil Code.
https://books.google.co.in/books?id=fOFcAgAAQBAJ


Article
International Journal for the Advancement of Counselling
December 2004, Volume 26, Issue 4, pp 341-350
First online:
The Impact of Modernization on Indian Families: The Counselling Challenge
Lina Kashyap
Department of Family and Child Welfare, Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai, India
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10447-004-0169-7

Changing Authority Within the Context of Socialization in Indian Families
George Kurian and Ratna Ghosh
Social Science
Vol. 53, No. 1 (WINTER 1978), pp. 24-32
https://www.jstor.org/stable/41886219?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents

Friday, July 22, 2016

State Bank of India - Business Correspondent and Business Facilitator - Business Opportunity



State Bank of India is appointing and using the services of business correspondents and business facilitators to increase the coverage of the Bank in rural areas as well as in urban areas. Other banks are also using the services of similar channel. This provides a startup opportunity to persons interested in proving financial services to people.

SBI has 66,000 customer services providers. It is in the process of revamping this channel by studying and improving the performance of these outlets.  SBI also has corporate banking correspondents.

Pay Point India is one such corporate service provider and it is planning appoint 3000 to 3500 CSPs.


Know more SBI Banking correspondents

BC arrangement - SBI Brief
https://www.sbi.co.in/portal/web/agriculture-banking/business-correspondent-bc-arrangement


Oxigen Financial Services - Advertisement for SBI CSPs
http://www.myoxigen.com/financial-services/sbi-kiosk.php

Report on Study of  business correspondents and business facilitators - 2011 Report
http://www.iibf.org.in/documents/reseach-report/Report-29.pdf


http://bcsbi.blogspot.in/2011/06/business-correspondents-engaged-by-sbi.html

Thursday, July 21, 2016

India - Rio Olympics 2016 - Men's and Women's Relay Teams


The Indian men's and women's 4x400m relay squads have qualified for the Rio Olympics

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Sania Mirza - 2016 Rio Olympics - Tennis Participant




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The Times of India  Sports Playlist
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzjPDNc5ZgsAsMJIQ6zVOKGbGzrRcGByB


Sania is participating in Rio Olympics. She will partner Prarthana Thombare in the Tennis women's doubles event and Rohan Bopanna in the mixed doubles.

Rohit Khandelwal from India crowned Mr World 2016




Rohit Khandelwal won Mr World title at the finale of the 2016 competition in the UK.

26-year-old Khandelwal received a cash prize of $50,000. The event was held  at the Southport Theatre and Convention Centre in Southport, UK.


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Zoom


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The Times of India

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

India's Economic Reforms (1991 - 2016) Review and Plan for 2016-2041 - $20 Trillion GDP




Indian Economic Reforms - Review of the period 1991 - 2016


All newspapers and periodicals are publishing articles reviewing the reform process initiated in 1991 and sustained till 2016 in a party neutral manner. Whichever government came into power so far, it carried the reforms further and strengthened the liberalized economic system where private business is allowed to show its entrepreneurial ability without the shackles of government planning commission and licenses based on it. Public sector was allowed to expand wherever possible without insisting on domination of public sector in every organized sector of economic activity.

Below is the collection of articles that are being published in Indian and Foreign press about the economic reforms undertaken during the period 1991 - 2016 in India

The first important document that every reader interested in knowing about economic reforms that Indian government initiated has to read is the budget speech delivered by Dr. Manmohan Singh, Finance Minister on 24 July 1991.

http://indiabudget.nic.in/bspeech/bs199192.pdf


20 years of economic reforms
Aug 09 2010.
http://www.livemint.com/Politics/nAnoRg4LU8JTsUE4T7STWI/20-years-of-economic-reforms.html

Twenty years after India’s historic economic reforms, it’s time for another big effort
Jul 21st 2011



25 Years Reviews - Published in 2016


25 years of reforms: Liberalisation is significant, but we still have an exit problem, says Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/25-years-of-reforms-liberalisation-is-significant-but-we-still-have-an-exit-problem-says-arun-jaitley/articleshow/53309906.cms

25 years of reforms: How a PM with zero knowledge of economics scripted India's biggest turnaround story
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/25-years-of-reforms-how-a-pm-with-zero-knowledge-of-economics-scripted-indias-biggest-turnaround-story/articleshow/53309051.cms


Economic reforms: P Chidambaram on India’s tryst with destiny
By: P Chidambaram | Published: July 10, 2016
Financial Express

The only way in which we can accelerate and sustain the pace of development is to ensure that every able-bodied adult can work and contribute to economic development. - P Chidambaram

If the Indian economy grows at 6% or 7% or 8%, it will continue to attract FDI. Money will flow into India. Infrastructure will be built. Factories will come up. Doing business will become easier in course of time. - P Chidambaram

A poorly educated and unhealthy workforce will be a severe drag on the economy. - P Chidambaram

http://www.financialexpress.com/fe-columnist/economic-reforms-p-chidambaram-on-indias-tryst-with-destiny/311890/




Quarter of a mile
The economic reforms initiated in 1991 changed India as we knew it. Twenty-five years later, the transformation is anything but complete, and there is a long way to go
http://www.theweek.in/theweek/cover/25-years-after-the-economic-reforms-of-1991.html


How reforms killed Indian manufacturing
ASHOK PARTHASARATHI
(Ashok Parthasarathi was the Science and Technology Adviser to the late Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.)
March 15, 2016
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/ashok-parthasarathi-how-reforms-killed-indian-manufacturing/article8352882.ece


The ease of living in India
PULAPRE BALAKRISHNAN
A quarter century of economic reform has transformed the economy. But governments have been less mindful of addressing social and natural capital
Pulapre Balakrishnan teaches economics at Ashoka University.
June 18, 2016
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-ease-of-living-in-india-with-economic-reform/article8641712.ece


Search Links for Articles on Economic Reforms in India - Newspaper  and Periodical Specific

The Economic Times
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/25-years-of-reforms/newslist/53309247.cms

Indian Express





India Economic Plan for the Future -  2016 to 2041






2016 Opinions


Montek Singh Ahluwalia - We need to focus on our cities and the challenges of urbanisation. That’s much more important.


At this juncture, the government should concentrate its attention on three quiet crises in the economy — in agriculture, industry, and infrastructure — which run deep and loom large as binding constraints on our economic performance.


Deepak Nayyar  (Chief Economic Adviser to three governments — two short-lived ones led by V P Singh and Chandra Shekhar and later, for the first few months of the Narasimha Rao-led government)
- At this juncture, the government should concentrate its attention on three quiet crises in the economy — in agriculture, industry, and infrastructure — which run deep and loom large as binding constraints on our economic performance.


Monday, July 18, 2016

RIO 2016 Olympics - Schedule - Brazil Time


Olympic Posters Unveiled
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The Times of India

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzjPDNc5ZgsAsMJIQ6zVOKGbGzrRcGByB


Download From

https://www.rio2016.com/sites/default/files/users/rio2016_files/guia_ingressoing_2015_daily_0.pdf


Detailed Schedule Under Preparation

5-21 August 2016


Daily competition schedule
                                           5    6     7     8    9    10    11     12    13    14   15    16  17  18  19  20 21
Sport     Venue
Archery Sambódromo       •     •      •     •     •      •      •
Athletics Olympic Stadium                      •   •    •    •    •   •    •   •    •
Athletics - Marathon                                          •                                   •
Athletics - Race Walk                               •                                 •

Under Preparation

Badminton Riocentro - Pavilion  • • • • • • • • • •
Basketball Youth Arena  • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Beach Volleyball  • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Boxing Riocentro  • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Canoe Slalom Whitewater  • • • • •
Canoe Sprint Lagoa Stadium  • • • • • •
Cycling - BMX Olympic  • • •
Cycling - Mountain Bike  • •
Cycling - Road Race Fort  • •
Cycling - Road Time Trial •
Cycling - Track Rio Olympic• • • • • •
Diving Maria Lenk Aquatics • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Equestrian - Dressage  • • • •
Equestrian - Eventing  • • • •
Equestrian - Jumping  • • • •
Fencing Carioca Arena 3  • • • • • • • • •

Football
Mineirão Belo Horizonte
Mané Garrincha Stadium Brasília
Amazônia Arena Manaus
Maracanã Rio de Janeiro
Olympic Stadium Rio de Janeiro
Fonte Nova Arena Salvador
São Paulo Arena São Paulo

Golf Olympic Golf Course • • • • • • • •
Gymnastics - Artistic  • • • • • • • • •
Gymnastics - Rhythmic  • • •
Gymnastics - Trampoline  • •
Handball Future Arena  • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Hockey Olympic Hockey  • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Judo Carioca Arena  • • • • • • •
Marathon Swimming Fort  • •
Modern Pentathlon Youth Arena Deodoro • • •
Rowing Lagoa Stadium Copacabana • • • • • • • •
Rugby Deodoro Stadium Deodoro • • • • • •
Sailing Marina da Glória Copacabana • • • • • • • • • • •
Shooting Olympic Shooting Centre Deodoro • • • • • • • • •
Swimming Olympic Aquatics Stadium Barra • • • • • • • •
Synchronised Swimming Maria Lenk Aquatics Centre Barra • • • • •
Table Tennis Riocentro - Pavilion 3 Barra • • • • • • • • • • • •
Taekwondo Carioca Arena 3 Barra • • • •
Tennis Olympic Tennis Centre Barra • • • • • • • • •
Triathlon Fort Copacabana Copacabana • •
Volleyball Maracanãzinho Maracanã • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Water Polo Julio de Lamare Aquatics Centre /
Olympic Aquatics Stadium Maracanã / Barra • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Weightlifting Rio Centro - Pavilion 2 Barra • • • • • • • • • •
Wrestling - Freestyle  • • • • • Wrestling - Greco-Roman Carioca Arena 2 Barra • • •
Opening Ceremony  •
Closing Ceremony  •



Updated  21 July 2016,  22 June 2016

Indian Participants - Sportsmen and Women in Rio Olympics 2016



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Indian Sportsmen and Women (Athletes) Selected for Olympics Rio 2016


Archery -  Indian Olympic Participants Rio 2016


Atanu Das
Bombayla Devi
Deepika Kumari
Laxmirani Majhi

Athletics - Track and Field Men  -  Indian Olympic Participants Rio 2016

Muhammad Anas 400 m

Ankita Sharma        Long Jump


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Kheta Ram         Marathon
Nitender Singh Rawat Marathon
Thonakai Gopi Marathon

Baljinder Singh 20 km walk
Gurmeet Singh        20 km walk
Irfan Kolothum Thodi 20 km walk

Sandeep Kumar 50 km walk
Manish Singh Rawat 50 km walk

Inderjeet Singh Shot put

Vikas Gowda         Discus throw




Athletics - Track and Field Men - Indian Olympic Participants Rio 2016

Dutee Chand 100 m
Srabani Nanda 200 m
Tintu Luka 800 m
Lalita Babar 3000 m steeplechase
Sudha Singh 3000 m steeplechase and Marathon
O. P. Jaisha Marathon
Kavita Raut Marathon

Khushbir Kaur 20 km walk
Sapna Punia     20 km walk
Manpreet Kaur Shot put
Seema Antil Discus throw




Tennis

Leander Paes
Rohan Bopanna

Sania Mirza
Prarthana Thombre



Updated  21 July 2016,  27 June 2016

Narendra Modi's Dream - India: 20 Trillion Dollar Economy - Possible by 2035?

January 2015
Narendra Modi stated his dream and asked his countrymen "Can't we dream and achieve?"

$20 Trillion Indian Economy is the Dream.

I immediately analyzed the idea. I found enough support already from various authorities on economic development and came to the conclusion that it is a feasible dream. It is a vision. This blog post is created immediately to provide support to the vision by informing many Indians the opportunity to participate enthusiastically and share the prosperity by first creating it.


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Indian Economy Plans, Programmes and Results

1 June 2016
Key Takeouts From India’s GDP Numbers
http://swarajyamag.com/economy/dont-order-the-champagne-yet-key-takeouts-from-indias-gdp-numbers


27 September 2015

PM Narendra Modi told the audience of  Facebook Townhall meeting that his aim is making India's economy touch $20 trillion in ppp terms.  (PWC 2050 world forecast says that by 2030 India will reach 17.13 trillion dollars.)

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/tech/tech-news/India-a-heaven-for-investors-aim-to-make-it-20-trillion-economy-PM-Modi/articleshow/49130230.cms


11 May 2015

 $10 trillion economy by 2034


We need to boost R&D spending to 2.4% of GDP to achieve GDP growth of 9% p.a. for number of years and  become $10 trillion economy by 2034

India's economy would need to increase its research and development (R&D) spending from mere 0.8 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2013 to 2.4 per cent  similar to developed markets of Korea (3.8 per cent), US (2.7 per cent) and China (1.9 per cent)  to grow its GDP by 9 per cent per annum to become a $10 trillion economy over the next two decades. Minister of state for science & technology and earth sciences, Mr Y.S. Chowdary  stressed the point while inaugurating '3rd Innovation Summit-cum-Excellence Awards: Innovative India@2020,' organised by The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) on 11th May 2015.

Read the PWC Report for the Event
https://www.pwc.in/assets/pdfs/publications/2015/innovation_driven_growth_in_india_final.pdf



Focus on innovation should not  be restricted to new technologies and products but also include innovative distribution and financing processes and business models according to the minister.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-cm/need-to-boost-r-d-spending-to-2-4-to-achieve-gdp-growth-of-9-p-a-to-become-10-trillion-economy-by-2034-science-technology-minister-115051200273_1.html




23 March 2015

Former IMF Deputy Managing Director John Lipsky  -  Exim Bank Commencement Day Celebration Lecture

"Viewed from a global perspective, India appears poised to enter a period of powerful progress that could carry widespread and profound benefits,"

This exciting period of "accelerated progress" could encompass many important social, economic and financial aspects. Investor expectations are favourable both because of promises of reforms and because of problems evident in other emerging markets.

"But this highly encouraging outcome can't be taken for granted. It will be realised only if opportunities are seized, including through a combination of reforms and new investment."

The biggest challenge is to improve productivity on a sustained basis. 

"The key challenge will be to boost productivity significantly, and on a sustained basis,"

See the Webcast of the lecture and listen to Dr. Lipsky favourable words on India's potential

http://24framesdigital.com/eximbank/webcast/230315/





1 March 2015

The Economic Times Newspaper carried this item on the front page in its coverage of Central Budget for India presented on 28 February by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.

"PM Modi dreams of a $20-trillion economy. As the Budget revs up India and makes it competitive globally, the world is agog."


Important Sectors - Contribution in $20 trillion India GDP

Estimated by Narayana Rao  (based on a comparison with current GDP of USA)
Readers are requested to give their opinions through comments.

Government - Central, State and Local Government - 15% - $ 3 trillion

Agriculture and Mining  -   $1 trillion (difficult. USA only $500 billion)

Construction  -    $ 1 trillion

Manufacturing   25%  -  $ 5 trillion
Automobiles - $1 trillion
Air Planes
Chemicals
Defence Equipment
Electrical equipment
Electronic devices
Petroleum - Extraction and Refining
Pharmaceuticals
Power Production
Railway Equipment
Metal refining
Textiles   ($650 billion production planned for 2025)


Services 50% - $ 10 trillion

IT  - $1 trillion
Real Estate - Offices, Hotels, Resorts and Residential Houses - Renting and Leasing - $1.75 trillion
Banking, Mutual Funds and Insurance - $1.5 trillion
Health and Social Care -  $1.5 trillion
Wholesale and Retail Trade - $2.25 trillion
Media -  $0.75 trillion
Entertainment - $0.75 trillion
Education - $0.25 trillion
Transport - $0.25




(Tourism is 7.5% of economy presently.)


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The Dream of $20 Trillion GDP - Dream Declared by PM Modi

$20 Trillion GDP for India - The Dream - PM Narendra Modi


17 January  2015 - The Dream Was Read by Me and My Support Started




Prime Narendra Modi addressing ET Global Business Meet on 16 January 2015

                                 http://pib.nic.in/photo//2015/Jan/l2015011661248.jpg


During his address on 16 January 2015 in ET Global Business Meet, Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated his dream and asked his countrymen "Can't we dream and achieve?"

$20 Trillion GDP Indian Economy is the Dream.


$20 Trillion GDP India - Dream Feasible - Feasibility Analysis


What is required to achieve it?

Presently India is $2 Trillion economy. At 10% per annum growth rate, it will take 25 years to achieve that target in real terms. May be if we take it in nominal terms it may take 20 years as there will be inflation in USA also.

Is 10% growth rate for 25 years possible?

Yes, it is possible if savings rate is 40% and Incremental Capital Output Ratio (ICOR) is 4 on average. It means capital projects must be planned with efficiency. All projects must be subjected to efficiency audits. Industrial Engineering is one discipline with focus on efficiency. In India, the National Institute given responsibility for Industrial Engineering is NITIE situated at Mumbai. The institute must rise to the occasion. I am a professor in NITIE and do my bit to increase the knowledge of the discipline in all engineers and managers by maintaining a blog titled Industrial Engineering Knowledge Center.  In recent years, I am also taking interest in explaining the discipline through company based training programmes.

So two questions are important.

What is ICOR in India and how does it compare with China?

What is savings rate in India and how does it compare with China?



ICOR


ICOR was average 4 in China during the period 1995 to 2008. Then it went above 4 for three years.

In India ICOR was 5 during 1991 to 2000, 4.4 during 2001 to 2010, but it was 3,7 during 2004 to 2008.

We can see that India has achieved ICOR of less than 4 during some years. This gives us the confidence that motivated government administration - Cabinets, Parliament, Assemblies and Panchayats and government employees, public sector management and employees, and private sector management and employees can achieve ICOR of 4 or less. The vision is compelling for all and the emphasis on inclusion announced by Modi should motivate all. The focus is not on fattening the wealth of rich but that of financial unity and inclusion.




http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/development/economic-outlook-for-southeast-asia-china-and-india-2014/incremental-capital-output-ratio-icor-in-emerging-asia-1995-2011_saeo-2014-graph93-en#page1

http://www.livemint.com/Money/LWBk77WUpnAs2mr3rIhF0K/Rising-ICOR-and-poor-growth.html

http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_SpeechesView.aspx?Id=603

Savings and Investment

India’s savings and investment peaked at 36.8% and 38.1% of GDP, respectively, in FY08. In FY13, the overall savings rate dropped to 30.1% of GDP and investment to 34.8% of GDP.
http://archive.financialexpress.com/news/budget-2014-indias-falling-savings-inflation-investments-and-returns/1226932

In China, the savings rate has gone up to 50% also. It seems possible that in India also Investment can be taken up to 40% GDP.


In both the important dimensions, India can reach the target and achieve 10 growth rate for a long period of time and achieve Modi's Dream.



I have circulated this article in social media and got some comments. I replied to some of them and elaborated my analysis.

24 January 2016


Today I cam across a lecture by S. Gurmurty. In December 2014 itself, he talked of $800 billion investment.
https://hinduway.wordpress.com/2014/12/25/greatness-of-the-indian-society-s-gurumurthy/

Narendra Modi's Dream - India: 20 Trillion Dollar Economy - Possible by 2035 through Involvement of All Indians


10% growth rate makes it possible. Innovation and efficiency are required. Government, Public Sector and Private Sector - all have to innovate and all have to improve efficiency.

10% growth was announced by the earlier government also. So it is possible. If the present government is more committed, more determined, and more driven by ideology to make India great and prosperous, 10% growth will be achieved and Modi's dream which will be the dream of all of us will come true. Rs.1,00,000 per month will be the per capital income in the country. Understand the potential and work for it. Believe in yourself first and achieve targets at your level first has to be the aim of many independent producers of goods and services. Remember Gandhi - Be the Change.

Modi's Dream for India - Let us make it Our Dream


Prime Minister Modi has an India Dream 
India is a World Top Team
India has Param Vaibhavam
Indians have great name and fame

Modi wrote a Gandhi Rhyme
There should be calm
Development is what Everybody should proclaim
Swachhata is the aim and health for all is main

20 trillion dollars in Maa Bharati's hands
Enough to fulfill every toiler's desires
Enough to nourish all Bharat residents
Every Indian has to come out and flex his muscles


The dream will be reality
Provided our polity
Nobility and levity
Work with unity

It is  Vivekananda's Dream
It is Gadhiji's Dream
Once again provided to us as Modi's Dream
Let us make it Our Dream

Mother, I am here
To fulfill your desire
I promise to deliver
Period of great grandeur 

Narayana Rao - 18.1.2015 at Thane 4.50 am


Comparison With US GDP


USA's GDP for 2013 17.078.3 trillion dollars.
http://nraousa.blogspot.in/2015/01/gdp-of-usa-2013.html



The Mechanism for Achieving $20 Trillion by 2035 - Increasing GDP 10 times for India

Passenger car industry can be the key industry. Plan to increase the car production 10 times from the present 30,00,000 to 30,000,000  ( from 30 lakhs to 3 crores or 3 million to 30 million)

Voices Supporting Modi's Dream


Estimate of $14 trillion GDP in a Book
See the Page of a Google Book
The End of American World Order
https://books.google.co.in/books?id=zVRxAwAAQBAJ




5 February 2015
Chetan Ahya in the Economic Times dated 5.2.2015 Page 18
Taken together, these important changes in the macro environment, when fully implemented, should have a lasting impact on boosting economic development in India, and will go some way in achieving the ambition of creating a $10-trillion economy by 2030.
http://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/et-commentary/indias-path-to-a-10-trillion-economy/

1 Feb 2015
Indian Stock Market value will touch $10 trillion dollars - BSE Chief Ashish Chauhan
http://www.financialexpress.com/article/markets/indian-markets/indian-markets-can-get-10-trillion-size-with-right-approach-bse-chief-ashish-chauhan/37607/


22 Jan 2015
China has gone ahead. But India can catch up.  Indian Express
http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/paper-dragon/


24 November 2014
PWC Report on India - Future of India - Winning Leap
Scenario 3: The Winning Leap includes investment in both human and physical capital as per the previous two scenarios but also focuses on investment in R&D and innovation and envisions a 9.0% CAGR for GDP by 2034. This scenario forecasts the most aggressive growth and is the only scenario which will generate the 240 million new jobs India's growing demography needs. This is supported by a massive transformation in the investment outlook and productivity metrics in India, supported through significant investments (domestic and foreign) and research and development.
http://press.pwc.com/global/the-future-of-india/s/3de54e52-d24c-49b4-bd8d-7cc5705bd5e6

Development of R&D Important for $10 Trillion GDP
_______________

_______________
Business world

Video - NDTV
http://profit.ndtv.com/videos/news/video-india-to-be-10-trillion-economy-by-2034-346133

February 2014
Finance Minister Chidambaram announced that India will be the third largest economy in the world by 2043. Can it be achieved by Modiji much before?
Policies to make India the third largest economy - Shri Chidambaram
http://guide-india.blogspot.in/2014/12/india-to-be-third-largest-economy-in.html



2010
A book written in 2009

India 2039: An Affluent Society in One Generation 

(Google eBook)

$20 trillion GDP for India mentioned in the book.

Harinder S Kohli, Anil Sood
SAGE Publications India, Jan 20, 2010 - 300 pages


This book paints a bold and inspiring scenario of India becoming an affluent society by 2039, that is, within a generation from now. It makes a persuasive case as to why such a scenario could be plausible. Even more importantly, the book very appropriately and frankly assess the many hurdles – political, social, policy and institutional – that the country must overcome to realize this vision and lift millions of Indians from relative poverty today to enjoy the fruits of a modern and inclusive affluent society within 30 years or so. Its agenda of inter-generational issues is central to India avoiding the middle income trap that so many other countries have fallen into. However, India can successfully tackle this trap only by addressing, and addressing urgently and head on, the various facets of governance highlighted in the book.

Features unique to this study
- unlike other vertical studies that treat a topic in depth but on its own, this book tries to connect the dots between the key issues that could decide the future of Indian society
- it has a longer 30-year perspective, with a corresponding emphasis on challenges that require long gestation to address
- it offers a projection not of what will be but of what India’s potential is.
Preview
https://books.google.co.in/books?id=jfyHAwAAQBAJ



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India - Vision $20 Trillion GDP - The Journey

Tifac is creating Technology Vision 2035 for India
http://www.indiatechvision2035.in/
http://www.tifac.org.in/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=835&Itemid=1402



Updates to the Blog Post - $20 Trillion GDP for India


Updated:  21 July 2016, 24 Jan 2016,  1 Nov 2015,  24 March 2015, 16 March 2015, 1 March 2015
Updated   27 Feb 2015, 18 Jan 2015

Started on  17 January  2015