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The 10 Trillion Economy - feat. Dr. Shamika Ravi, Ridham Desai, Mukesh Aghi & Ashish Chauhan.
WMG Group
22,590 views 1 Dec 2024
What does the path to India's 10 Trillion Economy look like? And how can we reach there?
Listen to Dr. Shamika Ravi, Member, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, Govt of India, lead a conversation with Ridham Desai, Morgan Stanley India - Managing Director and heads Morgan Stanley
Indian Equity Research, Mukesh Aghi, President & CEO, US- India Strategic Partnership Forum and Ashish Chauhan, CEO & MD, National Stock Exchange.
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This panel was a part of the India Ideas Conclave, brought to you by India Foundation and the WMG Group.
"Our economy is poised to grow up to $5 trillion in the next 7-8 years, and up to $10 trillion in the next 15 years."
Suresh Prabhu, Minister of Commerce & Industry and Civil Aviation of India, at The fifth edition of The Economic Times Supply Chain Management & Logistics Summit 2017 Minister of Commerce & Industry and Civil Aviation of India.
Lets all work to make India 5 trillion dollar economy: PM Modi
Rajya Sabha TV
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RIL chairman Mukesh Ambani - India's GDP To Double To 5 Trillion Dollar In Next 7 Years
22 July 2018
In 30 years, when India will celebrate the centenary of Independence, it can grow from a USD 2.5-trillion economy to become the most prosperous nation in the world, the RIL chairman Mukesh Ambani said.
“As India starts on its high growth journey to double the size of its economy by 2025, I assure you that the size of Reliance will more than double in the same period. And the creation of societal value by Reliance will be of an even higher order,” Ambani said in his 2018 RIL AGM address.
India to be $10 trillion economy by 2034?
NDTV
25 Nov 2014 Dennis Nally, Chairman of PwC International, talks to NDTV about strategies needed to turn India into a $10 trillion economy in 20 years after the firm released a report outlining the potential of the Indian economy.
On 21 April 2016, Niti Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant said India would become a $10 trillion economy by 2032. Kant made the projection assuming that growth would average 10% over the 16-year period. The presentation was made during Civil Services Day function attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and large number of civil servants. Mr,. Kant also said, a average growth rate of ten per cent during the next 16 years.
ITC Limited 104th Annual General Meeting - Address by Chairman Y.C. Deveshwar
It is aspiration of ITC to achieve, at the very least, a revenue of Rs.1,00,000 crores from new FMCG Businesses by 2030. The present turnover is Rs. 11,000 crores.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's $20 Trillion GDP Vision for India
Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in is his speech: "Let us Dream 20 Trillion Dollars GDP for India." Yes, He can create the vision for a $20 Trillion GDP India.
Already many experts have come out with $10 Trillion India. Let us achieve this intermediate target first by 2030 and then aim for the next. No rest till we are declared the best.
Yes, India can aim for $10 Trillion - Support from Gary Hamel, Strategy Guru
Vineer Nayar, Former CEO, HCL Technologies supporting the target and bringing leading consultants from the Globe to convince Indian Businessmen to create appropriate visions for their organizations.
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ET Now upload
24 November 2014
PWC Report on India - Future of India - Winning Leap
Scenario 3: The Winning Leap includes investment in both human and physical capital as per the previous two scenarios but also focuses on investment in R&D and innovation and envisions a 9.0% CAGR for GDP by 2034. This scenario forecasts the most aggressive growth and is the only scenario which will generate the 240 million new jobs India's growing demography needs. This is supported by a massive transformation in the investment outlook and productivity metrics in India, supported through significant investments (domestic and foreign) and research and development. http://press.pwc.com/global/the-future-of-india/s/3de54e52-d24c-49b4-bd8d-7cc5705bd5e6
Development of R&D Important for $10 Trillion GDP
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2010
National Solar Mission
Objective: to make India a global leader in solar energy and envisages an installed solar generation
capacity of 20,000 MW by 2020, of 1,00,000 MW by 2030 and of 2,00,000 MW by 2050.
Was it already revised by Modi Government?
Updated 2018 - 21 July 2018
Updated 2017 - 28 November, 2016 - 22 Apr 2016
Updated 2015 - 15 August, 12 April, 23 Feb 2015
16 January 2015
Narendra Modi stated his dream and asked his countrymen
"Can't we dream and achieve?"
$20 Trillion Indian Economy is the Dream.
I immediately analyzed the idea. I found enough support already from various authorities on economic development and came to the conclusion that it is a feasible dream. It is a vision. This blog post is created immediately to provide support to the vision by informing many Indians the opportunity to participate enthusiastically and share the prosperity by first creating it.
India is likely to cross the critical thresholds of US$5, US$10 and US$20 trillion in market exchange rate terms in FY2028, FY2036 and FY2045 respectively.
What does the path to India's 10 Trillion Economy look like? And how can we reach there?
Listen to Dr. Shamika Ravi, Member, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, Govt of India, lead a conversation with Ridham Desai, Morgan Stanley India - Managing Director and heads Morgan Stanley
Indian Equity Research, Mukesh Aghi, President & CEO, US- India Strategic Partnership Forum and Ashish Chauhan, CEO & MD, National Stock Exchange.
--
This panel was a part of the India Ideas Conclave, brought to you by India Foundation and the WMG Group.
India to become USD 4 trillion economy in FY25: Sanjeev Sanyal.
Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister member Sanjeev Sanyal.
Sanyal argued that the government should not push any fiscal move to accelerate economic growth to 8-9 per cent.
"If you get it, great, but anything around 7 per cent compounded over time is a very good growth rate.
(The same thing was told by P. Chidambaram long back. Taking unnecessary risks at the highest level and disturbing economy is more risky. At micro level there can be more ambitius targets.)
PM Narendra Modi told the audience of Facebook Townhall meeting that his aim is making India's economy touch $20 trillion in ppp terms. (PWC 2050 world forecast says that by 2030 India will reach 17.13 trillion dollars.)
We need to boost R&D spending to 2.4% of GDP to achieve GDP growth of 9% p.a. for number of years and become $10 trillion economy by 2034
India's economy would need to increase its research and development (R&D) spending from mere 0.8 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2013 to 2.4 per cent similar to developed markets of Korea (3.8 per cent), US (2.7 per cent) and China (1.9 per cent) to grow its GDP by 9 per cent per annum to become a $10 trillion economy over the next two decades. Minister of state for science & technology and earth sciences, Mr Y.S. Chowdary stressed the point while inaugurating '3rd Innovation Summit-cum-Excellence Awards: Innovative India@2020,' organised by The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) on 11th May 2015.
Focus on innovation should not be restricted to new technologies and products but also include innovative distribution and financing processes and business models according to the minister.
Former IMF Deputy Managing Director John Lipsky - Exim Bank Commencement Day Celebration Lecture
"Viewed from a global perspective, India appears poised to enter a period of powerful progress that could carry widespread and profound benefits,"
This exciting period of "accelerated progress" could encompass many important social, economic and financial aspects. Investor expectations are favourable both because of promises of reforms and because of problems evident in other emerging markets.
"But this highly encouraging outcome can't be taken for granted. It will be realised only if opportunities are seized, including through a combination of reforms and new investment."
The biggest challenge is to improve productivity on a sustained basis.
"The key challenge will be to boost productivity significantly, and on a sustained basis,"
See the Webcast of the lecture and listen to Dr. Lipsky favourable words on India's potential
http://24framesdigital.com/eximbank/webcast/230315/ (link not working)
I appreciate the minister for this mammoth effort to support Make in India.
1 March 2015
The Economic Times Newspaper carried this item on the front page in its coverage of Central Budget for India presented on 28 February by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.
"PM Modi dreams of a $20-trillion economy. As the Budget revs up India and makes it competitive globally, the world is agog."
Important Sectors - Contribution in $20 trillion India GDP
Estimated by Narayana Rao (based on a comparison with current GDP of USA)
Readers are requested to give their opinions through comments.
Government - Central, State and Local Government - 15% - $ 3 trillion
Agricultureand Mining - $1 trillion (difficult. USA only $500 billion)
Construction - $ 1 trillion
Manufacturing 25% - $ 5 trillion
Automobiles - $1 trillion
Air Planes
Chemicals
Defence Equipment
Electrical equipment
Electronic devices
Petroleum - Extraction and Refining
Pharmaceuticals
Power Production
Railway Equipment
Metal refining
Textiles ($650 billion production planned for 2025)
Services 50% - $ 10 trillion
IT - $1 trillion
Real Estate - Offices, Hotels, Resorts and Residential Houses - Renting and Leasing - $1.75 trillion
Banking, Mutual Funds and Insurance - $1.5 trillion
Health and Social Care - $1.5 trillion
Wholesale and Retail Trade - $2.25 trillion
Media - $0.75 trillion
Entertainment - $0.75 trillion
Education - $0.25 trillion
Transport - $0.25
During his address on 16 January 2015 in ET Global Business Meet, Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated his dream and asked his countrymen "Can't we dream and achieve?"
$20 Trillion GDP Indian Economy is the Dream.
$20 Trillion GDP India - Dream Feasible - Feasibility Analysis
What is required to achieve it?
Presently India is $2 Trillion economy. At 10% per annum growth rate, it will take 25 years to achieve that target in real terms. May be if we take it in nominal terms it may take 20 years as there will be inflation in USA also.
Is 10% growth rate for 25 years possible?
Yes, it is possible if savings rate is 40% and Incremental Capital Output Ratio (ICOR) is 4 on average. It means capital projects must be planned with efficiency. All projects must be subjected to efficiency audits. Industrial Engineering is one discipline with focus on efficiency. In India, the National Institute given responsibility for Industrial Engineering is NITIE situated at Mumbai. The institute must rise to the occasion. I am a professor in NITIE and do my bit to increase the knowledge of the discipline in all engineers and managers by maintaining a blog titled Industrial Engineering Knowledge Center. In recent years, I am also taking interest in explaining the discipline through company based training programmes.
So two questions are important.
What is ICOR in India and how does it compare with China?
What is savings rate in India and how does it compare with China?
ICOR
ICOR was average 4 in China during the period 1995 to 2008. Then it went above 4 for three years.
In India ICOR was 5 during 1991 to 2000, 4.4 during 2001 to 2010, but it was 3,7 during 2004 to 2008.
We can see that India has achieved ICOR of less than 4 during some years. This gives us the confidence that motivated government administration - Cabinets, Parliament, Assemblies and Panchayats and government employees, public sector management and employees, and private sector management and employees can achieve ICOR of 4 or less. The vision is compelling for all and the emphasis on inclusion announced by Modi should motivate all. The focus is not on fattening the wealth of rich but that of financial unity and inclusion.
Narendra Modi's Dream - India: 20 Trillion Dollar Economy - Possible by 2035 through Involvement of All Indians
10% growth rate makes it possible. Innovation and efficiency are required. Government, Public Sector and Private Sector - all have to innovate and all have to improve efficiency.
10% growth was announced by the earlier government also. So it is possible. If the present government is more committed, more determined, and more driven by ideology to make India great and prosperous, 10% growth will be achieved and Modi's dream which will be the dream of all of us will come true. Rs.1,00,000 per month will be the per capital income in the country. Understand the potential and work for it. Believe in yourself first and achieve targets at your level first has to be the aim of many independent producers of goods and services. Remember Gandhi - Be the Change.
The Mechanism for Achieving $20 Trillion by 2035 - Increasing GDP 10 times for India
Passenger car industry can be the key industry. Plan to increase the car production 10 times from the present 30,00,000 to 30,000,000 ( from 30 lakhs to 3 crores or 3 million to 30 million)
5 February 2015
Chetan Ahya in the Economic Times dated 5.2.2015 Page 18
Taken together, these important changes in the macro environment, when fully implemented, should have a lasting impact on boosting economic development in India, and will go some way in achieving the ambition of creating a $10-trillion economy by 2030. http://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/et-commentary/indias-path-to-a-10-trillion-economy/
24 November 2014
PWC Report on India - Future of India - Winning Leap
Scenario 3: The Winning Leap includes investment in both human and physical capital as per the previous two scenarios but also focuses on investment in R&D and innovation and envisions a 9.0% CAGR for GDP by 2034. This scenario forecasts the most aggressive growth and is the only scenario which will generate the 240 million new jobs India's growing demography needs. This is supported by a massive transformation in the investment outlook and productivity metrics in India, supported through significant investments (domestic and foreign) and research and development. http://press.pwc.com/global/the-future-of-india/s/3de54e52-d24c-49b4-bd8d-7cc5705bd5e6
Development of R&D Important for $10 Trillion GDP
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Harinder S Kohli, Anil Sood
SAGE Publications India, Jan 20, 2010 - 300 pages
This book paints a bold and inspiring scenario of India becoming an affluent society by 2039, that is, within a generation from now. It makes a persuasive case as to why such a scenario could be plausible. Even more importantly, the book very appropriately and frankly assess the many hurdles – political, social, policy and institutional – that the country must overcome to realize this vision and lift millions of Indians from relative poverty today to enjoy the fruits of a modern and inclusive affluent society within 30 years or so. Its agenda of inter-generational issues is central to India avoiding the middle income trap that so many other countries have fallen into. However, India can successfully tackle this trap only by addressing, and addressing urgently and head on, the various facets of governance highlighted in the book.
Features unique to this study
- unlike other vertical studies that treat a topic in depth but on its own, this book tries to connect the dots between the key issues that could decide the future of Indian society
- it has a longer 30-year perspective, with a corresponding emphasis on challenges that require long gestation to address
- it offers a projection not of what will be but of what India’s potential is.
Preview https://books.google.co.in/books?id=jfyHAwAAQBAJ
India Economic Conclave 2021- India's $5 trillion dream is still alive
ET Now DigitalUpdated Mar 19, 2021
Moody’s Analytics said on Thursday (March 19) said India’s GDP is projected to grow by 12% in 2021 as compared to its November 2020 estimate of 9% growth for the current calendar year.
Roadmap towards achieving a 5 trillion dollar economy by 2025 - Government of India
Press Information Bureau
Government of India
Ministry of Commerce & Industry
11-October-2018
Vision of a USD 5 Trillion Indian Economy
The Working Group tasked to develop a roadmap towards achieving a 5 trillion dollar economy by 2025 has prepared its report and it is being circulated to the stakeholders for further suggestions.The Working Group was constituted by the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion in the Ministry of Commerce and Industry with participation from government and industry. The Group held extensive and broad-based consultations with stakeholders to better understand the aspirations and the potential.The sectoral sub-groups were also formed to take the task forward.
India is one of the fastest growing major economies and is currently ranked as the world’s sixth largest economy. Projections of growth, over the medium term, remain encouraging and optimistic for India. The underlying strengths are indicative of the potential of India to achieve a USD 5 trillion economy by 2025. The current structure of the economy and the emerging dynamics provide us grounds to target achieving 1 trillion dollar from agriculture and allied activities, 1 trillion from manufacturing and 3 trillion from services.
The Government has several ongoing initiatives across sectors focused on growth. In agriculture the Government is aiming to reorient policy focus from being production-centric to becoming income-centric. The emphasis on incomes provides a broader scope towards achieving the needed expansion of the sector. The proposed Industrial Policy 2018 provides an overarching, sector-agnostic agenda for the enterprises of the future and envisions creating a globally competitive Indian industry that is modern, sustainable and inclusive.
The Champion Services sector initiative is also under way to accelerate the expansion of select service sectors. The Working Group has accounted for these initiatives and encourages a fresh impetus to achieve the target of a five trillion economy. http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=184130
2 October 2018
(12 - 13 February 2018)
India's Trillion Dollar Digital Opportunity - Digital India - Report by McKinsey on India
All the panelists felt that $5 trillion GDP target by 2025 was achievable. They felt it is probably underwhelming. Thus the corporate sector is highly positive about the target.
The contribution of Digital to GDP by that time will be $1 trillion. Hence Digital is going to grow in a big way.
New initiatives for $5 T economy soon: Suresh Prabhu
India's Consumption will triple to $4 Trillion by 2025.
India to Become Third-Largest Consumer Market Economy by 2025
Consumption will triple to $4 Trillion by 2025. Middle income Householders Will Represent Biggest Share of Spending; Urbanization and More Nuclear and Digital Households Will Also Shape New Spending Patterns
According to a report released today by The Boston Consulting Group’s (BCG) Center for Customer Insight (CCI), The New Indian: The Many Facets of a Changing Consumern nominal year-over-year expenditure growth of 12% in India is more than double the anticipated global rate of 5% and will make India the third-largest consumer market by 2025.
The shape of this growth will be influenced by the following factors:
The high income segments will constitute 40% of all spending by 2025; for the first time, this group will represent the largest consumption segment
Emerging cities (those with populations of less than 1 million) will be the fastest growing and will constitute one-third of total consumer spending by 2025
Three-fourths of all households will be nuclear families
Digital channels will influence 30% to 35% of all retail sales by 2025 and 8% to 10% of retail spending will be online
Among the factors that will shape consumption is India’s unique pattern of urbanization, in which emerging cities are the fastest growing. About 40% of India’s population will be living in urban areas by 2025, and city dwellers will account for more than 60% of consumption. Expenditures in these cities are already rising by nearly 14% a year, while consumer spending in India’s biggest cities is increasing at about 12% a year. Consumers in these cities behave differently from big-city consumers. They have a strong value-for-money orientation, significant local-culture affinity, and a more conservative financial outlook.
The proportion of nuclear households, which has been on the rise during the past two decades, has reached 70% and is projected to increase to 74% by 2025. This ongoing shift is significant to marketers because nuclear families spend 20% to 30% more per capita than joint families.
BCG CCI’s most recent consumer survey in India included 10,000 consumers in 30 locations nationwide and studied consumption in more than 50 categories. The biggest desires of aspirer households used to be to own a house and a car; today, many more of these consumers want to take international vacations. Similarly, affluent households are becoming comfort seekers, and they are willing to pay for it.
In addition, the internet is an increasingly pervasive factor in India’s commerce, and its influence will only expand. Online spending is taking off: in the past three years, the number of online buyers has increased sevenfold to 80 million to 90 million. Digital’s influence on broader consumer spending is significant and growing rapidly. Digitally influenced spending is currently about $45 billion to $50 billion a year, and that figure is projected to increase more than tenfold to $500 billion to $550 billion—and to account for 30% to 35% of all retail sales—by 2025. As a result, omnichannel interaction is more and more important, but its significance varies by category.
Already, a rising number of consumers in all segments are using the internet as their first port of call in framing and driving their purchase decisions. Research found that about 70% of those who have access to the internet go online to make informed purchase decisions.
In a meeting of CEOs of Tata group companies on this day, the birthday of Bharat Ratna J.R.D. Tata (29 July). chairman of the group, Mistry called for touching $350 billion revenue by 2025. During the year 2015-16, Tata group invested $9 billion globally. Tata group turnover was $103 billion during 2015-16. $350 billion revenue would mean a GDP contribution of $175 billion. This sort of estimate would give an estimate of $3 trillion of large scale organizations. MSMEs and India Uninc. can contribute equal amount of $3 trillion. That leaves $1 trillion as contribution from agriculture.
Startups in Digital Technology Space in India by 2025 - One Lakh
India will have one lakh startups by 2025 contributing $500 billion of value and giving employment to 70 lakh people. Mohan Das Pai now angel investor (formerly CFO, Infosys).
Average size of the successful start up (a small scale organization) will be $5 million (around 30 to 35 crore rupees). It provides employment to 70 people.
India Will Be Fastest-Growing Economy for Coming Decade, Harvard Researchers Predict
India is 3rd Largest Economy in terms of GDP-PPP Valuation (2015)
Unit: Billion, US Dollar
China USA India
GDP-PPP Valuation 18,976 18,125 7,997
Source : International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook WEO, April 2015
Industry Visions for 2025
Automobiles - Vision 2025
2.15 Million vehicles produced in 2013-14.
7% of the country’s GDP.
6 Million-plus vehicles to be sold annually, by 2020.
The auto industry produced a total of 2.15 Million vehicles, including passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, three-wheelers and two-wheelers in 2013-14 as against 2.06 Million in 2012-13, registering a growth of 4.04% in a year.
The total turnover in 2010-11 was USD 58.5 Billion, turnover by 2016 is slated to be USD 145 Billion.
Automotive mission plan, 2006-16:
To emerge as the world’s destination of choice for design and manufacture of automobiles and auto components with output reaching a level of USD 145 Billion, accounting for more than 10% of the GDP and providing additional employment to 25 Million people by 2016.
The Tata SIA Airlines Ltd’s research gives the estimate that civil aviation in India has the potential to create an economic value of $250 billion and contribute to around 5 percent of the country’s GDP by 2025. It sees a three-fold rise in domestic air traffic by 2025. Contribution of Civil Aviation sector to India’s GDP in 2009 is estimated to be 1.5% as per the recent study carried out by Oxford Economics. The study has also estimated that the sector supports a total of 9.95 million jobs. • Passenger handling capacity has risen three-folds from 72 million (FY 06) to over 220 million (FY 11) • Cargo handling capacity has risen from 0.5 million MT (FY 06) to 3.3 million MT (FY 11) If every Indian in the middle-class income bracket takes just one flight per annum, it would result in a sale of 300 million tickets, a big jump from the 70 million domestic tickets sold in 2014-15. The first vision statement in the draft NCAP 2015 speaks of creating an ecosystem that will enable 30 crore (300 million) domestic tickets to be sold by 2022 and 50 (500 million) crore by 2027, from the current seven crore (70 million).
Modi Govt. Unveiled National Biotechnology Development Strategy 2015-2020 with the objective of achieving $100 billion by 2025. The present industry size is $7 billion.
150 technology transfer organizations will come up in India as a part indigenous technology development mission.
Chemicals
Chemical Industry Size Could be $400 billion by 2025
Proposal to establish an autonomous USD 100 Mn chemical innovation fund by securing 10% of the total inclusive national innovation fund set up by the National Innovation Council
The Indian Chemical Industry comprises both small and large-scale units, and presently, there are about 70,000 chemical manufacturing units located in the country (Deptt. Of Chemicals and
Petrochemicals-Draft National Chemical Policy-December 2013) a major component (in numbers) are covered in the small scale sector.
Indian chemical industry is expected to register a growth of 8-9% in the next decade.
India’s chemical industry is likely to touch $214 billion (approx ₹13,91,000 crore) in the next four years from $139 (approx ₹9,03,500 crore) in fiscal 2014 with estimated growth of around 9 per cent a year. There is robust growth of consuming sectors till fiscal 2025. Hence there is very strong outlook for the key end-user industries. The demand for intermediate chemical products and basic chemical is expected to surge in the coming years.
The installed capacity is 6 million tons per annum (MTPA). India would fall short by 25–30 MT by 2025, which would mean an additional import cost of INR 150,000 to 200,000 crore (USD 24 to 32 billion) a year for intermediates.
A level of 85 per cent self-sufficiency in petrochemical intermediates is a necessary and achievable aspiration for the country to have a vibrant downstream chemical industry. This would require India to install 20–25 MTPA of additional petrochemical intermediate capacity – a number four times the volume of the entire current installed capacity. It means 70–90 additional plants (at economically viable scale) across 30–40 products have to be planned and implemented.
Basic inputs to make Petrochemical Intermediates
Petrochemical building blocks
▪ Methanol
▪ Ethylene
▪ Propylene
▪ C4, C5
▪ Benzene, toluene, xylene
Although the Petrochemical Industry has consistently outperformed the GDP Growth rates of India – growing at around 1.5 times the GDP growth rate, recent developments consequent to advantaged feedstock availability in the US and Middle East have led to a situation where announced investments by Indian Companies on production of Petrochemical Building Blocks have fallen short of future requirements.
The chemical industry’s R&D spends would need to go up significantly from current levels of less than 0.5% of sales to reach closer to global benchmarks of 4% of sales (implying R&D spends of ~$12 billion by 2017.
The chemical industry is central to the modern world economy having a typical sales-to-GDP ratio of 5-6%.
With the current size of $108 billion the Indian chemical industry accounts for approximately 7% of Indian GDP. The chemicals sector accounts for about 14% in overall index of industrial production (IlP). Share of industry in national exports is around 11% (2011?)
Source Documents
Download them and read them in detail to understand the growth of the sector
Construction industry plays a pivotal role in developing country’s infrastructure and accounts for nearly 45% of the total investment in the Infrastructure. Construction sector is also the second
largest employer after the agriculture sector.
Construction industry can be broadly classified into two sectors i.e. organized and unorganized. The organized sector includes more than 30,000 organisations whereas the standalone contractors in the unorganized sector number more than 120,000.
Construction equipment accounts for 21-23 % of the total project cost
As per estimates by Off-Highway research, the sale of construction equipment is expected to reach 84,000 units by 2014, of which infrastructure and real estate sectors will account for 70%. This translates into a CAGR of about 20% over the next five years (2009-2014) in sales of construction
equipment.
About 250 ancillary industries such as cement, steel, brick, timber and building material are dependent on the construction industry. A unit increase in expenditure in this sector has a multiplier effect and the capacity to generate income at much higher growth rates.
Real Estate
11.5 million homes a year - US$ 1 trillion a year market
The country is expected to become the world's third largest construction market by 2025, adding 11.5 million homes a year to become a US$ 1 trillion a year market, according to a study by Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics. http://www.ibef.org/archives/detail/b3ZlcnZpZXcmMzY0OTgmNTI1
Roads
The road network stands at 3.3 million km in (2006?). Of this, rural roads comprise around 2.7 million km, i.e. about 85 percent. Overall village accessibility stood at 54 percent in the year 2000, although position in respect of accessibility to large size habitations has been much better.
However, in order to give a boost to rural connectivity, a Rural Roads Programme known as the
Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) was launched in December 2000. As a departure from
the earlier programmes, the PMGSY is being implemented as a 100 percent centrally funded scheme. As per the current guidelines, the PMGSY covers all habitations above 500 population to be provided with all-weather rural roads. In case of hills, deserts and tribal areas, the threshold is relaxed and covers all habitations above 250 population. It is estimated that about 1.79 lakh unconnected habitations need to be taken up under the PMGSY programme. This would involve new construction in a length of about 375,000 km at an estimated cost of Rs. 78,000 crore and improvements of 372,000 km at an estimated cost of Rs. 59,000 crore. Upto the end of December, 2006, a total of about 83,000 habitations have been covered and rural road works for an amount of Rs.38,387 crore have been sanctioned.
When the PMGSY was launched in 2000, it was estimated that about 347,000 habitations
out of a total of 825,000 habitations were without any all-weather access. Thus, 40 per cent of the
habitations were cut off from the country’s mainstream of development. According to latest figures
made available by the state governments under a detailed survey undertaken to identify core networks
about 1.79 lakh unconnected habitations need to be taken up under the PMGSY programme.
PMGSY Programme: New Connectivity
Habitation Number of Rural Length Required Total Estimated cost
Population Group Unconnected Habitations (km) (Rs billion)
1000+ 60,030 138,888
500-999 79,208 160,754 784.18
250-499 * 39,530 75,690
Total 178,768 375,332 784.18
* Only in hill states, desert and tribal areas as per PMGSY eligibility.
In addition, upgradation of roads of the core network will be undertaken where required to provide
connectivity to market centres and other social infrastructure. A length of 372,816 km for upgrading at an estimated cost of Rs.590.330 billion has been included out of a total length of 1,134,112 km,
Cement demand is projected to grow to 2.5 to 2.7 times the current volumes and reach 550 to 600 MTPA by 2025. Per capita cement consumption is likely to increase from 185 kg currently to 385 to 415 kg in 2025. This growth will likely be led by investments in the infrastructure sector, with subsectors such as roads, power, and irrigation leading the charge.
Present production 137.6 million tonnes.
The demand of milk and milk products in India is projected to increase to 142.9 million tonnes in 2015 and further to 191.3 million tonnes in 2020. The demand will further rise to 231.18 million tonnes in 2035.
The demand projections show that there is scope to increase diary farms at the various scale levels. Large scale diary farms having 200 milk giving animals may be encouraged to increase productivity and quality of milk. Also, setting up advanced diary plants and implementing modern IT systems like internet of things in the entire supply chain including the cattle will take place. Already, some diary plants have used RFID tags attached to animals to monitor their behaviour and inform the animal owners about various steps to be taken. http://guide-india.blogspot.in/2015/03/dairy-industry-and-activity-vision-2025.html
Electrical Machinery - Vision 2025
Output of US$ 100 billion by 2022
As of 2011-12, the Indian EE industry has grown close to Rs. 1.20 lakh crore (US$ 25 billion). It
contributes 1.4% to the nation’s GDP and 10.0% to the manufacturing GDP.
Based on investment estimates and capacity addition targets, domestic demand for generation equipment (BTG) could be in the range of US$ 25-30 billion by 2022; for the T&D equipment industry, it may be US$ 70–75 billion. The EE industry is projected to provide direct employment to 1.5 million people and indirect employment to 2 million by 2022. http://dhi.nic.in/writereaddata/Content/indian_mission_plan_2012-2022.pdf
Electronics Design and Manufacturing - Vision 2025
The Indian food processing industry is valued at approx. ` 78,094 crore for the year 2011-
12.
The industry has shown Compounded
Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.4% during the period 2006-07 to 2011-12.
Information Technology and Business Process Services - Vision 2025
CII sets 2025 vision for building a customer centric and value creating USD 250 bn insurance industry in India
Life insurance industry to grow at 12% CAGR over next decade to reach USD 160 bn – USD 175 bn and general insurance to grow at 22% CAGR to reach a GWP of USD 80 bn.
From a ` 12,000 crore top-line industry in 2001–02, today it is worth ` 70,000 crore (FY 2013), clocking an annual growth rate of 17%. The industry today provides a cover of ` 1,000
lakh crore,
2025 - GWP to GDP penetration of 1.4%
Gross Written Premium
— Growth CAGR of ~14–15% resulting in GWP of ~Rs. 3,50,000 crore by 2025. (5 times of 2013 GWP)
— With no improvement in combined ratio, the industry would continue to have a negative value creation of ` 20–25,000 crore while delivering average RoE of 10–12%.
— Capital requirements remain relatively high – RS.` 20–25,000 crore of fresh infusion.
Leather Industry - Vision 2025
Total production of Indian leather industry stands at USD 11 Billion
Exports have grown from USD 1.42 Billion in 1990-91 to USD 6 Billion in 2013-14
India produces 2 Billion sq. feet of leather, accounting for 10% of the world leather requirements
Domestic market expected to double in next five years
Exports projected to grow at 24% per annum over next five years
The global footwear market is estimated to be worth $192.3 bnin 2008, a growth of 2% over
the 2007 value. The Indian footwear industry is estimated to be worth just INR 160 bn or $4 bn[2].
It is the second largest global producer of footwear after China, accounting for more than 14 % of
global footwear production of 14.52 bn pairs.
The Indian footwear market is expected to worth INR 475 bn by 2025, representing a compounded
annual growth rate of 7%.
The contribution of mining to India’s GDP has fallen from 1.2 per cent to 1 per cent in the recent years.
The mining industry has the potential to create 6 million additional total jobs by 2025, accounting for 12 per cent of the new non-farm job gap. The mining industry could contribute USD 125 billion to India’s output and additional USD 47 billion to India’s GDP by 2025.
In 2012, the mining sector accounted for 3 million jobs directly, and induced an additional 8 million
jobs.
If mining grows more rapidly, it could increase its direct and induced contribution to India’s output
from USD 50 billion in 2012 to USD 126 billion by 2025 (additional USD 47 billion over business-as usual scenario). Additional contribution to GDP will be USD 47 billion )
India’s mining sector has been growing slower than other major mining jurisdictions such as China, Brazil, Canada, the United States, Chile and Australia. The real value add of India’s mining sector to the GDP is very low at USD 14.4 billion against that of China (USD 150 billion), Australia (USD 38 billion) and Brazil (USD 21 billion). Between 2010 and 2012, India’s mining sector grew at 0.8 per cent compared to 15 per cent for China, 5.3 per cent for the United States, 2.5 per cent for Canada and 2 per cent for Brazil. So there is substantial scope for increasing mining output in India. India has
endowment of the top 5 or 6 reserves globally across commodities such as thermal coal and iron
ore. So availability of ore is there. Investment and technology to mine the ore and process it have to be arranged.
The Indian pharmaceuticals market increased at a CAGR of 17.46 per cent in 2015 from US$ 6 billion in 2005 and is expected to expand at a CAGR of 15.92 per cent to US$ 55 billion by 2020.
Long coastline of 7,517 km and navigable inland waterways of 14,500 km offering immense potential
for maritime sector development.
150 + projects for investment identified in Indian maritime sector
Opportunities for investment of USD 19 Billion in Inland Waterway development and USD 50 Billion in Port-led Development under ‘Sagarmala’
‘Sagarmala’ - New Port Development and Port Modernization
Greenfield major ports at Vadhavan (Maharashtra), Sagar Island (West Bengal), Paradip Outer Harbour and Potential locations in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu
Trans-shipment Hubs at Enayam (Tamil Nadu) and Vizhinjam (Kerala)
Port Mordernization:
Increasing draft at Kamarajar (Ennore), Paradip and Mormugao Ports to 18m
500 MMTPA port capacity augmentation in Major Ports by 2025
‘Jal Marg Vikas’ project for capacity augmentation for navigation and shipping in River Ganga: NW-1 (1620 km)
Development of 111 National Waterways
Development of cruise terminals at Mormugao, Chennai, Mumbai, Chennai and Kochi.
Shipping
Market size of shipbuilding expected in 2025 – US$ 25 billion
Market size of shipbuilding at present – US$ 5 billion
India will develop road projects spanning 50,000 kilometers and entailing investments of about $250 billion over the next five years (FY 2016-17 to FY2020-2021).
The 12th five year plan 2012-17 estimated the road sector’s investment to be $95 billion.
Potential adoption of 12 empowering technologies in India
Mobile internet, cloud technology, Automation of knowledge work (through mobile phones), Digital payments, Digital identity, internet of things, Intelligent transportation and distribution, Advanced geographic information systems, Next generation genomics, Advanced oil and gas exploration and recovery, Renewable energy, Advanced energy storage
To assess the potential impact of the 12 technologies on the economy of India, McKinsey sized more than 40 applications in six sectors of the economy: financial services, education and skills, healthcare, agriculture and food, energy, and infrastructure.
The total impact of the sized applications could amount to $240 billion to $500 billion a year by 2025. Given the contributions of these sectors to India's GDP, the estimate across the entire economy, is estimated to be $550 billion to $1 trillion by 2025.
Financial services. The applications could have an economic value of $32 billion to $140 billion a year by 2025. As many as 300 million Indians could gain access to banking services and raise their incomes by 5 to 30 percent thanks to better access to credit and the ability to save and make remittances.
Education and skills. The remote learning, massive open online courses (MOOCs), and other digital systems could have an economic impact of $60 billion to $90 billion a year by 2025 thanks to higher productivity among a larger number of skilled workers. India could have about 24 million more high-school and college-educated workers and 18 million to 33 million more vocationally trained workers by 2025 as a result of digitization in the education sector.
Health Care: By 2025, the total economic impact could be $25 billion to $65 billion a year, including $15 billion that could be saved through systems to reduce the problem of counterfeit drugs. Some 400 million of India's poor could get access to better care through technologies that bring medical expertise to modestly skilled health workers in remote areas.
Agriculture and food. Technology applications could create $45 billion to $80 billion a year in additional value in the sector. More than half of that would come from hybrid and genetically modified crops, precision farming (using sensors and GIS-based soil, weather, and water data to guide farming decisions), and mobile Internet–based farm-extension and market-information services. These improvements could raise the incomes of as many as 100 million farmers
Energy. Collectively, the technology applications in energy could have an economic value of $50 billion to $95 billion a year by 2025. The largest benefit would come from smart metering, which could save $15 billion to $20 billion a year by 2025 in reduced transmission losses. Unconventional-oil and -gas development might generate value of $10 billion a year by 2025.
Together, infrastructure technologies can contribute $30 billion to $45 billion a year in value by 2025.
Due to the fourfold growth of bilateral trade since 2006 to 100 billion USD in 2014, both the governments are now keen and committed to further improving trade relations. The time is ripe for a new ambition to be set in its trade relations and improve the trade to $500 billion.
1.6 trillion USD worth of investment will be required by 2025 and 3.6 trillion USD by 2034 for India to transform into a 10 trillion USD economy. An important share of this investment will need
to come from international sources investing in new technologies and setting up global research and development (R&D) centres in India. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to India rose by
26% in 2014 to an estimated 35 billion USD. http://www.pwc.in/assets/pdfs/publications/2015/indo-us-trade-mission-500-billion-usd-iacc-report.pdf
Updated 2024 - 19.10
2018 - 12 November, 16 May 2018, 1 May 2018, 28 January
23 March 2017, 12 March 2017, 31 July 2016, 30 May 2016, 16 May 2916, 12 March 2016, 8 March 2016, 1 Jan 2016
Please inform if you have come across any interesting information regarding any sector through comments
