Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Full Employment in India - 60 crore - 600 million jobs

India's population is above 1200 million or 120 crore. We can take 4 member family as typical family and think that it has a man and wife and one parent and one child. This family requires one employed person. Of course, we can change the norm and say both man and wife are employed. If we say, one employed person for average family, we require 30 crore jobs. If we say, two employed persons, we require 60 crore jobs.

What is the investment required for creating 300 million jobs? Actually if we take present employment statistics, the total employment in the country will be more than 30 crore. Agriculture provides 26 crore jobs and the rest of the sector provides provides at least 5 crore jobs. But there is a need to move employment from agriculture to manufacturing and services.

Employment Creation during 2014

October - Dec 2014 - 1.17 lakhs
July Sep 2014 - 1.58 lkhs
April - June  -  1.82 lakh

24th quarterly survey conducted by Labour ministry covering 2,077 sample units across eight selected sectors.

89,000 jobs in IT/BPO
79,000 in Textiles and Apparel

Actual employment at the end of 2013 is now given as 459.5 million.

Actual employment at the end of 2013 is now given as 459.5 million. The plan for 2022 is 578.6 million.

A study by DIPP on investment and job creation shows that for one crore investment the following number of jobs were created between 1991-2014

1. Industrial instruments - 103.2
2. Leather and leather goods - 42.0
3. Commercial household equipments - 25
4. Earth moving machiinery - 15.1
5. Miscellaneous industries - 14.1

Source for information:

India Can Create 25 Crore Jobs in Two Years

Can we take 25 persons employment for one crore investment as norm (Labour and employee intensive industrialization) and develop our industries around it? It would mean we can create 25 crore jobs in manufacturing sector. For that,  we require  (25/25) crore crores investment.

1 crore crore rupees   =  (1/62.5)* 10 million * 10 million dollars  =  (100/65) million million dollars  = 1.6 trillion.dollars.

India is going to invest  800 billion dollars this year 2015-16 and 880 billion in 2016-2017. So that would create the required number of jobs in the next two years.

So if India takes a policy decision to support setting up and manufacturing and service projects that provide employment to one person for four lakh rupees investment, it can provide employment to 25 crore people in the next two years and solve its employment problem.

According to 2001-2002 census, small scale industries provide emplyment to 7 persons for 5 lakh investment. Large industries provided one job for 5 lakh investment.
Source: See page from Book  -  Indian Economy 2010-2011

If Highly Automated Production System is Employed

But what happens if only 4 jobs are created (highly automated production system) for one crore of investment.

It would mean,  to create 25 crore jobs in manufacturing sector, we require  (25/4) crore crores investment.

6.25 crore crore rupees   =  (6.25/62.5)* 10 million * 10 million dollars  =  10 million million dollars  = 10 trillion.dollars.

India is going to invest  at an average of One trillion dollars for the next years. Hence, it is possible to employ 30 crore people appropriately in agriculture, industry and services sectors in 10 years.

India's employment structure can be transformed in the next 10 year and large number of people will be shifted to manufacturing and service sectors in the next 10 years. If the industry and businessmen concentrate on employment in the first five years, they will have opportunity to concentrate on productivity improvement through automation in the next five years.

20 Crore Jobs in Next Two Years Sufficient

Realistically, we need to create only 20 crore new jobs in industry and service sectors. 5 crore people can remain employed in Agriculture. 5 crore people are already employed in industry and service sectors. So only 20 crore new jobs are to be created.

Hence the break up of 20 crore jobs can be 18.2 crore producers, 1.6 crore supervisors, 0.2 crores managers.

The average salary of producers can be Rs. 6000 per month, that of supervisors  Rs. 10,000 per month, and that of managers Rs. 20,000 per month.

Persons given skill training through ITIs, skill development institutions,, technical schools and high schools are employed as producers of goods and services. Diploma holders and graduates can be employed as supervisors. Graduates, post graduates, and post graduate professionally certified people can be employed as managers.

8 April 2015

News item in Economic Times Page 17

EPFO updated its accounts for 2014-15 on 1 April 2015 itself. 15.54 crore accounts were updated in a day.

What does it mean?  Are there that many employees in India with provident fund accounts?

Times of India - News item on Page 11

Cabinet cleared hike in dearness allowance to  113% from 107% from 1st Jan 2015. The decision will benefit 48 lakh govt. employees and 55 lakh pensioners. It will cost Rs. 6,762.24 cr per annum

Employment Statistics India - 12 Five Year Plan - 2012 -17

Updated: 18 March 2017, 6 June 2015,  20 April 2015,  8 April 2015, 23 March 2015, 22 March 2015, 17 March 2015

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