Monday, May 12, 2014

BJP is winning - Channels screaming - Congress Still Hopes It Will Win - Says Opinion - Exit Polls were wrong Earlier - Why polls may be right now?

Mani Shankar Aiyar said he will not believe in the exit polls. He is still optimistic and will wait for the results. Papers today carried the news item showing during 2004 and 2009 exits gave wrong forecasts/estimates.

Why the polls may be right now?

First the psephologists and channels are more careful now. They do not want to be wrong third time.

In 2004, there is no visible pro-BJP wave. Only normal logic gave the opinion that BJP is likely to win. The wave against TDP was not picked up by pollsters. In 2004, it is not BJP that did badly bit its allies who did very badly.

What was the scenario in 2009? The BJP banked on strong Advani versus weak Manmohan Singh. But Advani was not a really successful administration who did wonders. He was more a disciplinarian of the party. We can today he did not do any administrative wonders.

What is the difference with Narendra Modi?

Modi has actually proved his administrative ability to do certain things in a visibly successful way. It resulted in open support to Modi from many unexpected quarters. On Social media, the support to Modi is explained by some as partisan crowd.  But, people like me can see many ordinary persons writing in support of Modi. They are not partisan people. Similarly, many public citizens like autoriksha and taxi drivers spoke overwhelmingly  in support of Modi. They are not a partisan crowd.

There is a visible support for Modi both from top industrialists and from bottom self employed people. It is complements by educated young persons.

So one feels, the opinion polls and exit polls this are likely to be right and probably the pollsters are giving conservative figures and the actual performance may be still more in favour of BJP and NDA.

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