Saturday, August 13, 2016

Indian (India) GDP Vision 2050

$42 trillion GDP by 2050 in PPP terms

$27.937 trillion GDP by 2050 in Market Exchange terms


India can become a $42 trillion economy by 2050 -  says PWC 2050 Global report.

The report was released in 2015

PWC Forecast  - The world and India in 2050

India has the potential to become the second largest economy in the world by 2050 in PPP terms (third in MER terms), although this requires a sustained programme of structural reforms.

GDP in Dollars in PPP terms

                             2014         2030         2050

1 China              17,632       36,112       61,079
2 United States   17,416      25,451       41,384
3 India                  7,277       17,138       42,205
4 Japan                 4,788         6,006         7,914

These longer term trend growth estimates are based on the following key factors:

 Growth in the labour force of working age (based on the latest UN population projections);
 Increases in human capital, proxied here by average education levels across the adult population;
 Growth in the physical capital stock, which is driven by capital investment net of depreciation; and
 Total factor productivity growth, which is driven by technological progress and catching up by lower income countries with richer ones by making use of their technologies and processes.

 The world will return to the pre-Industrial Revolution era when China and India dominated world GDP in large due to their great populations, and relatively efficient agricultural sectors at that time.

 Breakdown of components of average real growth in GDP (2014 – 2050)

        Average Population   Average Real Growth   Average GDP growth p.a. (in
        growth p.a %              per capita p.a %           domestic currency)

India       0.7%                            4.2%                       4.9%

The Indian economy is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 6.4% in 2014 – 2020, but is
likely to see some moderation in the subsequent years. However, its growth rate will  remain stronger than China after 2020 due to its younger population and greater scope for catch-up growth.

 Investment rate assumptions

                  Investment as % GDP
Country         Initial rate (2014)                 From 2025

India                      25.7%                              23.7%

Projections for GDP at market exchange rates (2014 dollars)

                              2014            2030                   2050

Country                   GDP at MER         GDP at MER             GDP at MER

1 China                           10,355                    26,667                  53,553
2 United States               17,416                    25,451                  41,384
3 India  appx.                   2 trillion                  7,304                  27,937

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