Friday, January 10, 2014

Can BJP contact 10 crore households and get 20 crore votes?

BJP's Mass Contact Programme of Touching 10 Crore Households in Town and Major Villages

BJP announced publicly that it will contact 10 crore households and do "vote and note"campaign.

A website asked the question - Do you believe that the BJP’s plan to contact 10 crore households to collect donations and bring in 20 crore votes is really feasible? for an online poll?

This brings first into question how many households are there in India.
India has 23.6 crore occupied households. This gives a figure 5.38 persons as average.
The rural households are 16 crores and the rest 7.6 crore households are urban.

The election commission of India estimates the total electorate to be 72.5 crore.But adding 6% to the eligible voters of 2009 lok sabha election comes to a new voter figure of 75.7 crore. In 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the polling was approximately 60%. The total votes polled will come to 45.41 crores.

UPA got 15.34 crores and NDA got 10.26 crore votes in 2009 election.

BJP targeting 20 crore votes seems to be a sensible target giving a vote share of 44%. UPA got 37.22% and did not get the full majority (262 seats). As BJP is on mission 272+ it has to target more than 40% vote. It is trying to touch 42.37% households. It is not an ambitious target. But BJP may not have done such an exercise so far. Hence it has to plan, budget, execute and monitor the entire exercise.

Congress certainly has experience in reaching large number of households in the country. BJP does not have the experience. But if it wants to have a reasonable go at the 272+ target it has to do the exercise.

BJP talks of repeat of 1977 Lok Sabha Elections. But do the party and its workers realize that in 1977, Janata party got 41.2% of the total vote and 56.7% of the seats it contested. It contested in 405 seats and won in 295 seats.

Resoucres required to contact 10 crore households during February to March before announcement of the candidates.

If BJP is planning to meet 10 crore households during February to March, assuming that they will do it in the evenings when people come back from work, would mean a team will be able to visit 10 households in a day and in around 50 in these two months one team can meet 500 households. It would mean two lakh teams will be required. Each team must have at least 5 members. That would mean 10 lakh people have to be involved in the exercise. Does BJP have such resources?

BJP Mission 272+ (Plus) - State-Wise Targets and Campaign Activities

India Parliament - Lok Sabha Elections 2014 News and Views


00 INDIA 246,692,667
01 Jammu & Kashmir 2,015,088
02 Himachal Pradesh 1,476,581
03 Punjab 5,409,699
04 Chandigarh # 235,061
05 Uttarakhand 1,997,068
06 Haryana 4,717,954
07 NCT of Delhi # 3,340,538
08 Rajasthan 12,581,303
09 Uttar Pradesh 32,924,266
10 Bihar 18,940,629
11 Sikkim 128,131
12 Arunachal Pradesh 261,614
13 Nagaland 399,965
14 Manipur 507,152
15 Mizoram 221,077
16 Tripura 842,781
17 Meghalaya 538,299
18 Assam 6,367,295
19 West Bengal 20,067,299
20 Jharkhand 6,181,607
21 Odisha 9,661,085
22 Chhattisgarh 5,622,850
23 Madhya Pradesh 14,967,597
24 Gujarat 12,181,718
25 Daman & Diu # 60,381
26 Dadra & Nagar Haveli # 73,063
27 Maharashtra 23,830,580
28 Andhra Pradesh 21,024,534
29 Karnataka 13,179,911
30 Goa 322,813
31 Lakshadweep # 10,703
32 Kerala 7,716,370
33 Tamil Nadu 18,493,003
34 Puducherry # 301,276
35 A & N Islands  # 93,376


BJP's Plan of Reaching 10 crore households and Collecting Donations

The campaign will run over  two months starting from 14 January. The campaign will be run by 20,000 Mission 272+  volunteers and they will be assisted by BJP workers.
The target is to reach at least  10 crore (100 million households in the country). The focus areas will be urban and semi-urban areas even though some rural areas also will be covered. In these household visits volunteers will ask for donation to the party as one note, and  BJP has decided to rent hand-held receipt issuing machines at Rs.1,000 per month. 20,000 machines will be hired and receipts to donors will be given immediately after they deposit money. The receipt will have details about name of donor, mobile number and other necessary information. Apart from the paper receipt, an SMS will also be sent on the mobile phone of the donor.
If volunteers complete the task of reaching 100 million households, the BJP would connect with 50 crore (500 million) people. Around 30 crore (300 million)  of them are likely to be voters. India has around 75 crore (750 million) voters.

There are 7,935 towns (4,041 towns having municipalities and rest having around 5000 population) 37.7 crore people live in these towns.

1 Jan
Ready for Ek Vote - Ek Note door to door contact

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