BJP MIssion 272+ (plus) Analysis - Achievements

_____________

_____________

It has provided a goal to its member and supporters.

VG ‏@venuhg 37m
@BJP272Plus @BJP4India @astitvam Let us all work towards this target mission 272+.. Here is my analysis pic.twitter.com/RYpMdygs29

Ganesh Chetan ‏@ganeshchetan 2h
Mission 272+ by BJP and target 30-40 seats by AAP seems like a good goal to motivate their respective cadre.... http://fb.me/2QTfAsBBK

Number of analysts and commentators have come out with their opinion on the plan.

_________________

State-wise  BJP Mission 272+ (Plus)  Seat Targets

Andhra Pradesh(5) - Arunachal Pradesh (1) - Assam (5) - Bihar (30) - Chattisgarh (10) - Delhi (5)
Goa (2) - Gujarat (26) - Haryana (5) -  Himachal Pradesh (4) - Jammu and Kashmir (2) - Jharkhand (10)   Karnataka (20) - Kerala (1) - Madhya Pradesh (25) - Maharashtra (20) - Manipur - Orissa (3)
Punjab (3) - Rajasthan (25) - Tamil Nadu (5) - Tripura - Uttara Khand (5) Uttara Pradesh (55)
West Bengal (5)      Total:  272

Andaman & Nicobar Islands - Chandigarh (1) - Daman and Diu (1) - Puducherry

Click on  Links to go to the page having campaign news of the state

Visit also BJP Mission 272+ (Plus) Realistic - State Leaders Committed to Targets

Visit BJP Election Performanc from 1998 - 2009 and Best Performance in each state  - The total of the best comes to 239 seats.

_________________


http://guide-india.blogspot.in/2013/12/bjp-mission-272-plus-state-wise-targets.html

http://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/headon/entry/2014-electoral-math-part-31

http://www.motilaloswal.com/site/rreports/HTML/635227829884369570/index.htm

________________
India: BJP unlikely to win 200-220 seats in 2014 elections
by Praful Bidwai, 5 January
http://www.sacw.net/article7160.html


In states like Andhra Pradesh (42), West Bengal (42) and Tamil Nadu (39),  Kerala (20),  Assam and  Northeastern states BJP has no effective presence and In this  chunk of 168 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP’s score has always been in the low single-digits and is unlikely to improve.

In states like Karnataka (28), Orissa (21), Punjab (13) and Jharkhand (14), and the smaller states and UTs each with less than 10 seats BJP has a limited presence. BJP may get  40 seats out of a total of 116 LS seats from this category.

The BJP can  hope to do better  in Rajasthan ( 4/ 25 seats), Gujarat (15/26) and MP (16/29), but not in Chhattisgarh (10/11). However, even if the BJP repeats its best-ever performance in MP (25), Rajasthan (21), Gujarat (20) and Chhattisgarh (10), that would still fetch it 76 of 91 seats. More realistically, it could win 55-60 seats. This would bring it about 100 seats, with a maximum of 115, from the first three categories.


The BJP  needs to reap 85-100 seats from the fourth category (UP, Bihar and Maharashtra) which send 168 Lok Sabha MPs. In 2009, it won just 31 seats from these.  In a super-optimistic scenario, the BJP might win 24/40 seats in Bihar with a strike-rate of 60 percent. Even if it creates a “wave”, which seems extremely unlikely, it can maximally repeat its best-ever performance (18/48 in 1996). Then, the BJP would need to win 55-60 seats from UP. It crossed the 50-seat mark in undivided UP’s 85 seats only twice, in 1998 and 1999, when it came to national power.

Comments:
The other way of looking at it.

BJP's Strategy of Contesting Seats and Expected Percentage of Success

Cateory I Contest 348 seats 70% of the seats to be won - 244
 Arunachal Pradesh (2) - Assam (14) - Bihar (40) - Chattisgarh (11) - Delhi (7)
Goa (2) - Gujarat (26) - Haryana (5) -  Himachal Pradesh (4) - Jammu and Kashmir (2) - Jharkhand (14)   Karnataka (28) -  - Madhya Pradesh (25) -  - Maharashtra (26) -  Orissa (21)
Punjab (3) - Rajasthan (25) -  Uttara Khand (5) -  Uttara Pradesh (80)
   

Andaman & Nicobar Islands (1) - Chandigarh (1) - Daman and Diu (1) - Dadra & Nagar Haveli (1)

Category II - 195 seats - 93 seats for allies and 102 seats for BJP. BJP to win 28% of the seats to be won - 28

Andhra Pradesh(42) - Haryana (5)  Jammu and Kashmir (4)  Kerala (20) -  Maharashtra (22) -  Manipur - Nagaland ( ) -  Punjab (10) - Tamil Nadu (39) - Tripura - West Bengal (42) - Puducherry (1)

Andhra Pradesh(10) -  Jammu and Kashmir (1)  Kerala (10) -  Tamil Nadu (20) - Tripura - West Bengal (20) - Puducherry (1)

Andhra Pradesh(32) - Haryana (5)  Jammu and Kashmir (3)  Kerala (10) -  Maharashtra (22) -  Manipur - Nagaland ( ) -  Punjab (10) - Tamil Nadu (19) - Tripura - West Bengal (22) -

________________

A volunteer drive is launched.

http://www.india272.com/


Opposition was given a chance to criticize.

State Leaders are committing to the targets implied by Mission 272+